Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was many things — brazen land grab, fantasy bred in isolation, czarist cosplay. It was also a plea for respect. After three decades of perceived Western encroachment, Mr. Putin sought to strike back at the agent of Russia’s confinement, the United States. A blitzkrieg, he surely surmised, would put America in its place and give Russia the power to shape Europe’s destiny. When Mr. Putin spoke, the United States would have to listen.
With President Trump’s return to the White House, Mr. Putin’s bet finally seemed close — after years of failure — to paying off. Mr. Trump appeared eager to wash his hands of the war in Ukraine, claiming he could end it in “24 hours.” Even if Mr. Trump did not outright abandon Ukraine, he could be strung along as Russian forces pressed forward on the battlefield. In time, Russia and the United States would restore relations and cooperate — from the Arctic to the Middle East, arms control to trade. America’s attitude to Russia would finally acquire common sense.
One year later, those hopes have been dashed. As the war grinds on, Mr. Trump’s admiration for Mr. Putin has not turned into much that actually benefits Russia. Efforts to normalize the bilateral relationship have gone nowhere: There has been no progress on resuming direct flights or sending a new U.S. ambassador to Moscow. Neither the red-carpet fanfare of the leaders’ one-off summit in Alaska last summer nor the backslapping bonhomie of their cronies is a substitute for proper diplomatic ties. Talk aside, the Trump White House has not been good for Russia.
For starters, Mr. Trump has scanted Mr. Putin’s geopolitical aspirations. After American strikes on Iran in June, Mr. Trump rebuffed Mr. Putin’s offer to mediate. Later, Mr. Trump did not even bother to invite the Russian leader to the summit he held in Egypt to celebrate the shaky cease-fire in Gaza. Extra embarrassingly, Mr. Putin had to postpone his own Russia-Arab gathering. Rather than work with Russia in the Middle East, Mr. Trump has largely ignored Mr. Putin and suggested that the Russian leader settle his own war before getting engaged elsewhere.
The American president has also shown little care for Russian partners, allies or spheres of influence. In the Caucasus, seen by the Kremlin as Russia’s backyard, Mr. Trump ostentatiously played peace broker between Armenia and Azerbaijan, dispatching Vice President JD Vance to seal the deal. In Venezuela, with the lightning removal of Nicolás Maduro, he showed how powerfully he could menace a Russian dependent. And having assembled what he called a “beautiful armada” in the Persian Gulf, Mr. Trump may well strike Iran again — or take aim at Cuba, another Russian ally.
Mr. Trump has interfered with Russian interests in other ways. He has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, seized a Russian-flagged tanker and pressed India to stop buying Russian crude. The fragile peace in the Caucasus looks like the prelude to American economic trespass. It’s little wonder that Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, warned that Mr. Trump wants “to dominate the world economy.” The Kremlin may dangle the prospect of enormous deals before American companies, but discussions on broader economic cooperation have tellingly been delegated to a bilateral working group.
On arms control, things haven’t gone much better. In September, Mr. Putin made a suggestion: With New START coming to an end, both Russia and the United States should adhere to its limits on nuclear warheads for another year. Mr. Trump never bothered to respond formally. Before the treaty expired on Feb. 5, Mr. Trump hinted that any future agreement should include China. That was of a piece with Mr. Trump’s elevation of China over Russia, encapsulated by his raising for discussion a Group of 2 with Washington and Beijing alone.
That lofty attitude extended to Mr. Trump’s “Board of Peace.” In a seeming sign of inclusion, Mr. Putin was invited to join. But Mr. Trump, crowning himself chairman of the board in perpetuity, made clear that it will be his show. Russia can fall in line or stay on the outside. For a country that aspires to something like parity, this no doubt ranks as subordination: Russia hasn’t joined, and skipped the board’s inaugural meeting on Thursday. Mr. Trump’s solipsism and need to be at the center of attention do not allow for equals.
Mr. Trump is not entirely bad for Russia, of course. The White House and the Kremlin align on several first principles, including a hostility toward the European Union, an aversion to so-called woke culture and the belief that might is right. Mr. Trump’s capricious foreign policy has disrupted the trans-Atlantic relationship, thrown historic commitments into doubt and put everyone on guard. Amid the great global hedge currently underway, Russia may well find more room to maneuver. Trumpian disruption could in time redound to Russian advantage.
The problem is that Russia remains hemmed in by its war against Ukraine, entering its fifth year. For all his flip-flopping, Mr. Trump has not handed the country to Russia. If he were to force it into a bad deal now, he would elicit fierce resistance. Mr. Trump’s recent reversal of his threat to take Greenland by force suggests that when there is strong enough pushback, he retreats from his maximalist demands. On some level, he seems to understand that success lies in the eyes of the beholder, not just in his own.
Unable to get from Mr. Trump what he wants in Ukraine, Mr. Putin will fight on, sinking Russia’s resources ever more deeply into his calamitous war. The cost, in treasure and personnel, will climb ever higher. The United States, meanwhile, will continue to shake up the global order — guided not by the allure of a great-power concert with Russia but by the maxim of Trump First. Whatever else that is, it won’t look much like respect.
Hanna Notte is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif.
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