Late last fall, Minnesota Democrats were on their heels.
A scandal over fraud in social service programs had become the dominant issue, threatening to tank Gov. Tim Walz’s bid for a third term and drag down fellow Democrats in this year’s midterm elections. A large slate of Republicans running for governor saw a chance for their party to win a statewide race for the first time in 20 years.
Only a few months later, the political landscape looks far different. The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in the region has upended the policy debate as state lawmakers begin a new session in the Capitol. And Governor Walz, facing mounting criticism over the fraud scandal, including from the White House, ended his re-election campaign, paving the way for another Democrat, Senator Amy Klobuchar, to run for governor.
“If wrecking the G.O.P. brand in Minnesota was the Trump administration’s actual assignment, then A-plus, 10 out of 10 execution,” said Chris Madel, a prominent defense lawyer who suspended his campaign for governor as a Republican last month, citing his outrage over the conduct of immigration agents during the federal surge.
All along, the new state legislative session that began in St. Paul this week had been expected to reflect the myriad crises Minnesotans had faced during a tumultuous year.
The opening session was a tearful tribute to Melissa Hortman, a former House speaker who was fatally shot last June in an attack prosecutors called a political assassination. Months later, an assailant opened fire through the window of a Minneapolis Catholic church packed with students, killing two and wounding 21 others, and Democrats in the narrowly divided legislature have pledged to press for limits on guns, including a ban on some military-style weapons.
But Republicans had focused in recent months on the fraud scandal, examining holes in the state oversight system and calling for changes in how the state hands out taxpayer money. Announcing additional charges in a web of fraud that dated back to 2020, prosecutors said that weak safeguards had enabled large networks of criminals to steal billions from programs designed to feed needy children, treat minors with autism and help people at risk of homelessness. Many of the roughly 100 people charged with crimes, prosecutors said, were of Somali origin.
The scandal captured the attention of the White House, and in December, the Trump administration began its immigration crackdown in the state, even as federal agencies threatened to cut funding for several state-run programs.
By early January, as tensions between immigration agents and residents grew in the Twin Cities, Mr. Walz suspended his re-election bid, saying he had concluded that a campaign would hobble his ability to combat fraud aggressively in the coming months. Not long after, Ms. Klobuchar, a former prosecutor and strong fund-raiser who has won recent races by double-digits, announced she was jumping in.
“I kind of feel like their campaigns ended the same day mine did,” Mr. Walz said this week of the Republicans who had lined up to oppose him. Ms. Klobuchar’s entry into the race was broadly regarded as bad news for the Republicans running, including Lisa Demuth, the speaker of the Minnesota House.
Alex Plechash, chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party, acknowledged that his party might have gone overboard in drawing attention to the fraud scandal.
“It was an issue that we obviously capitalized on, maybe too much, because Tim Walz ended up stepping down,” he said. Still, he said, Republicans have time to recalibrate their pitch to voters before elections this fall. “Eight months in the political world is a lifetime, so a lot of things can change,” he said.
In the State Capitol, Democrats are now aiming to turn the policy conversation toward the immigration crackdown, and the painful consequences that many in the Twin Cities have spoken up about, as well as the behavior of federal agents on the streets, including the killings of two U.S. citizens.
So far, the Democrats have introduced a long list of bills seeking to provide financial support to people and businesses affected by the immigration operation. Other measures would rein in the conduct of federal agents, banning their use of masks, for example, and prohibiting them from entering schools, hospitals and places of worship without a judicial warrant.
“We’ve seen what these federal agents have done with our own eyes,” Erin Murphy, the top State Senate Democrat, said in an interview. “Republicans will pay a price in the fall.”
Ms. Demuth conceded that the immigration operation had included troubling moments. “No one is more frustrated with a bad cop than a good cop,” she said in an interview.
But Ms. Demuth, who is seeking President Trump’s endorsement in the race for governor, has been largely supportive of the crackdown. “The feds were here for one specific job, and that was to get the criminals that were here out of our communities,” she said. Federal officials have said that more than 4,000 people were arrested during the crackdown, which lasted two and half months and reportedly included some 3,000 agents.
Looking ahead, Ms. Demuth said state lawmakers should remain focused on combating fraud, including creating an inspector general’s office.
She signaled little interest in measures aimed at curbing the authority of immigration agents, arguing that state officials would lack the authority to enforce such limits. Democrats have a one-seat majority in the Senate and the parties have an even number of seats in the House, where Ms. Demuth will have the power to keep bills on contentious issues, including gun control measures, from receiving an up-or-down vote.
In the end, the issue that Minnesotans may care most about in November may be affordability, according to Ms. Demuth and her Democratic counterpart in the House, Representative Zack Stephenson.
Ms. Demuth said her party would continue to portray Democrats as irresponsible fiscal stewards, drawing attention to how quickly they spent a large budget surplus in 2023, and to how much money was lost to fraud during Mr. Walz’s administration.
Mr. Stephenson said Democrats have a stronger record on pocketbook issues, having passed legislation that capped drug prices, provided free meals to school children and required employers to offer paid medical and family leave. “We absolutely have the upper hand on this,” he said.
In Blaine, a suburb north of the Twin Cities where state legislative races have been tightly contested in recent years, residents interviewed this week said that the fraud scandal and the immigration crackdown had not fundamentally altered their political alliances.
Brandis Mager, 39, said she was likely to continue to vote for Republicans. Liberals, she said, had gone overboard in their criticism of immigration enforcement.
“There’s a lot of stuff out there that is blatantly false, that paints the officers in a bad light,” Ms. Mager said.
Amr Khalid, 19, who will be a first-time voter this year, said he hadn’t felt particularly drawn to either party. But the killing of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by immigration agents turned him into a single-issue voter in the upcoming election.
“I will try to find someone who can get ICE out,” he said.
Ernesto Londoño is a Times reporter based in Minnesota, covering news in the Midwest and drug use and counternarcotics policy. He welcomes tips and can be reached at elondono.81 on Signal.
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