Swalwell’s that ends well. Or maybe not, for California Democrats.
They lost a frontrunner, and they don’t have a replacement yet.
Eric Swalwell quit the race for California governor on Sunday night, after several women accused him of sexual misconduct and even assault.
But the Democrats still have a math problem.
Here’s the latest on the allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell
- Eric Swalwell under investigation by Manhattan DA over alleged sex assault of staffer
- Eric Swalwell cowers in billionaire pal’s $26M mansion — as rape claim sparks career freefall
- Four women detail horrific sexual assault, misconduct claims against Eric Swalwell — including ex-staffer who alleges he raped her
- Eric Swalwell paid illegal Brazilian live-in nanny under the table with campaign funds, complaint alleges
- Influencer’s husband threatens Eric Swalwell after he allegedly bombarded her with nudes and turned up at her house
Under the state’s peculiar “top two” primary system, also known as the “jungle,” all of the candidates compete in a common pool, and the top two finishers advance, regardless of party.
There are only two well-known Republicans in the race. And there are still half a dozen familiar Democrats, even after Swalwell’s indefinite “suspension.”
Worse, the disgraced congressman, who had led the other Democrats in some polls, will still remain on the June 2 primary ballot.
That means he is guaranteed at least a small percentage of the vote. Low-information voters will recognize his name without realizing he isn’t running anymore.
The media consensus is that former Representative Katie Porter will be the chief beneficiary of Swalwell’s self-destruction (and may also have been the chief instigator, behind the scenes).
But voters don’t seem to like her, certainly not after her tantrum at a CBS reporter last year over the simple question of how she intended to appeal to Trump voters, who are nearly 40% of the California electorate.
Porter and the rest also have massive egos. Matt Mahan has big donors. Tom Steyer has a big pile of his own cash to burn.
Try telling any of them to yield. They each likely believe Swalwell’s exit wlil help them, and only them.
There’s no daylight for Democrats in this jungle.
A smart Democrat would pick one Republican — just one — to target for attack, or challenge to a debate.
That’s what Adam Schiff did with Steve Garvey in the 2024 race for Senate.
Schiff may be many other things, but he’s also clever. He knew that by helping just one Republican, he would help himself.
But Trump Derangement Syndrome seems to have clouded Democrats’ ability to think strategically. Like Porter, the Democrat candidates seem to treat the other 40% of California as an afterthought.
So they will likely continue to focus on attacking Trump, erasing any distinction between them.
Their best hope is that one of the Republicans pulls away from the other.
But Steve Hilton finished a close second to Chad Bianco at the weekend’s California GOP convention, even after President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
There’s no daylight between them, yet.
California Democrats have a math problem. And time is running out.
Joel Pollak is the opinion editor of the California Post.
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