BUDAPEST, Hungary — Hungarians were casting ballots Sunday in what is widely seen as Europe’s most consequential election this year, a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an ally of US President Donald Trump, after 16 years in power.
It’s a key moment for Orbán, the European Union’s longest-serving leader and one of its biggest antagonists, who has traveled a long road from his early days as a liberal, anti-Soviet firebrand to the Russia-friendly nationalist admired today by the global far-right.
Polls opened at 6 a.m. and were scheduled to close at 7 p.m. Orbán and his top challenger, Péter Magyar, arrived at separate polling stations in Budapest at nearly the same time to cast their votes.
Speaking to reporters outside, Orbán, 62, said the campaign had been “a great national moment on our side” and thanked activists and supporters for their work. “I’m here to win,” he said.
The election was being closely watched in countries around Europe and beyond, which is a testament to the outsize role Orbán occupies in far-right populist politics worldwide.
Members of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement are among those who see Orbán’s government and his Fidesz political party as shining examples of conservative, anti-globalist politics in action, while he is reviled by advocates of liberal democracy and the rule of law.
After casting his vote, Magyar told reporters that the election was “a choice between East or West, propaganda or honest public discourse, corruption or clean public life.”
“I urge all Hungarian citizens to exercise their right to vote,” he said.
Casting her ballot in Budapest early Sunday, retiree Eszter Szatmári, 62, said she felt the election was “basically our last chance to see anything vaguely resembling … democracy in Hungary.”
“We all have to make real effort to show to the world that we are not who people thought we were in the past five to ten years,” she said.
Turnout after the first five hours of voting was 37.98%, according to the National Election Office. That is a record in Hungary’s post-communist history, with around 876,000 more voters having cast their ballot by 11 a.m. than during 2022 elections.
Orbán has been at the helm since 2010
During his 16 years as prime minister, Orbán has launched harsh crackdowns on minority rights and media freedoms, subverted many of Hungary’s institutions and been accused of siphoning large sums of money into the coffers of his allied business elite, an allegation he denies.
He has also heavily strained Hungary’s relationship with the EU, seeming to revel in using his veto power to stymie the 27-member bloc’s important decisions. Most recently, he blocked a 90-billion euro ($104 billion) EU loan to Ukraine, prompting his partners to accuse him of hijacking the critical aid.
Yet after winning four consecutive elections with a two-thirds majority for his party in Parliament, signs have emerged that Orbán’s absolute control over Hungary’s politics may be reaching its end.
A serious challenger on the rise
Magyar has rapidly risen to become Orbán’s most serious challenger. The 45-year-old leader of the center-right Tisza party, which is leading in independent polls, campaigned on issues affecting ordinary voters, including Hungary’s faltering public health care and transportation sectors, and what he describes as rampant government corruption.
A former insider within Orbán’s Fidesz, Magyar broke with the party in 2024 and quickly formed Tisza. Since then, he has toured Hungary relentlessly, holding rallies in settlements big and small in a campaign blitz that recently had him visiting up to six towns daily.
In an interview with The Associated Press earlier this month, Magyar said the election will be a “referendum” on whether Hungary continues on its drift toward Russia under Orbán, or can retake its place among the democratic societies of Europe.
Tisza won 30% of the vote in European Parliament elections in 2024, and Magyar took a seat as an EU lawmaker. Tisza is a member of the European People’s Party, the mainstream, center-right political family with leaders governing 12 of the EU’s 27 nations.
Facing an uphill election battle
Magyar and Tisza face a tough fight. Orbán’s control of Hungary’s public media, which he has transformed into a mouthpiece for his party, and vast swaths of the private media market give him an advantage in spreading his message.
The unilateral transformation of Hungary’s electoral system and gerrymandering of its 106 voting districts by Fidesz will also require Tisza to gain an estimated 5% more votes than Orbán’s party to achieve a simple majority.
Additionally, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries have the right to vote in Hungarian elections and traditionally have voted overwhelmingly for Orbán’s party.
There have also been comments ahead of the election that external meddling and internal fraud could taint the result. Fidesz and Tisza both have launched platforms for reporting irregularities, accusing their opponents of planning to commit election abuses.
Russian secret services have plotted to interfere and tip the election in Orbán’s favor, according to numerous media reports, including by The Washington Post. The prime minister, however, has accused neighboring Ukraine, as well as Hungary’s allies in the EU, of seeking to interfere in the vote to install a “pro-Ukraine” government.
Such accusations are part of why many in the EU who see Orbán as a danger to the bloc’s future hope he loses and a new Hungarian government under Magyar will prove a better partner.
But across the Atlantic, Trump and his MAGA movement are all-in for another Orbán term. Trump has repeatedly endorsed the Hungarian leader, and US Vice President JD Vance made a two-day visit to Hungary last week meant to help push Orbán over the finish line.
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