For the last several weeks, sailing a ship through the Strait of Hormuz was perilous, given the risk of Iranian attacks, whether by missiles or mines. Now that the United States and Iran have put the war on pause, the voyage may be less dangerous. But it is no less challenging politically or diplomatically.
Two days into the fragile cease-fire, the strait has become Iran’s biggest chip in a high-stakes geopolitical contest with President Trump.
Rather than throwing open the waterway to oil tankers and container ships, as the Trump administration had promised, shipping analysts said Iran was keeping a chokehold on it. And Iran is giving priority to a trickle of vessels from countries that either trade directly with it or are not viewed as hostile to the Iranian government.
This has put the dozens of countries that use the strait in a devilish position, having to navigate between Iran and the United States like modern-day versions of Scylla and Charybdis, the monsters of Greek mythology who threatened mariners with destruction in the treacherous Strait of Messina.
“The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis,” said Bridget Diakun, a senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a London-based maritime data and intelligence company. “The Trump administration is forcing its allies to negotiate with Iran because there is no other option.”
That could change, of course, if the United States applies enough pressure on Iran to ease passage in the strait. But for now, at least, the Iranians are still exploiting their ability to disrupt global trade and energy flows — based on their interests.
It was no coincidence, shipping analysts said, that the first Western European-owned vessel to transit the strait since Iran imposed restrictions belonged to a French shipping company, CMA CGM, and that its safe passage last week came the day after President Emmanuel Macron of France lashed out at Mr. Trump for his management of the war and for his frequent criticism of the NATO alliance.
“France has positioned itself as not aligned with the U.S. on the war, and so not hostile to Iran,” said Martin Kelly, the head of advisory at EOS Risk Group, a consulting firm. “It was probably a message to the rest of Europe.”
A spokeswoman for CMA CGM declined to comment on how it struck a deal with Iran. French officials said they were in touch with the company but have not said whether the government played a role in securing the ship’s passage.
Other countries that have won passage for ships, like Turkey, Pakistan and India, either trade with Iran or have taken a neutral position on the war. Pakistan brokered the negotiations that resulted in the cease-fire, and it will play host to Vice President JD Vance and an Iranian delegation in Islamabad on Saturday, where the two sides will try to work out a permanent settlement.
In the meantime, Iran is keeping a chokehold on the strait. On Wednesday, only five cargo ships passed through, none of which were carrying oil or gas. Iranian media said Iran halted tankers to protest Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, in Lebanon. Iran, Israel and the United States have argued over whether the cease-fire agreement includes Lebanon.
On Thursday, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said in an interview with ITV News that the strait was open to all but that there were still mines in the water and that ships wanting passage needed to coordinate with the Iranian military. That could further spook shipping companies, even if they doubted the veracity of Iran’s claims.
It also raised the pressure on them to use only a route that passes closer to Iranian territory, known as the Larak detour, which allows the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to vet the ships and potentially collect fees for passage.
In its negotiation with the Trump administration, Iran wants to make that arrangement permanent. Iranian officials said they plan to charge ships $2 million per passage and use the money, after giving neighboring Oman a cut, to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by American and Israeli airstrikes.
Mr. Trump responded by floating the possibility that the United States would jointly control the strait with Iran and split the proceeds with it. The toll-collecting concept was quickly rejected by allies like Britain, whose foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, said on Thursday, “freedom of navigation means navigation must be free.”
Those remarks could rankle Mr. Trump, who has already lashed out at Britain for its lack of support for the campaign. In fact, European countries are likely to have the thorniest challenge in navigating the politics of using the strait. Mr. Trump has castigated NATO allies more broadly for their unwillingness to forcibly reopen the strait, and said at various times that Iran’s control of the strait is a problem for Europe, not the United States.
European countries, which rely more heavily than the United States on oil and gas coming from the Persian Gulf, are assembling a 35-member coalition to do that, but only after the conflict is settled.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar are also likely to balk at a toll, given their deep reliance on oil and natural gas exports. But even if it is a far-fetched idea, analysts said it could give Iran leverage in talks with the United States that will cover other difficult issues, like its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
While the world waits for a definitive end to the conflict, countries are likely to keep trying to cut their own deals with Iran.
Diplomats from Turkey, which had 15 ships and more than 150 sailors stranded by the war, have spoken with Iranian officials about securing safe passage for the trapped vessels. They drew on Turkey’s longstanding trade and diplomatic relations with Iran, which included President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s efforts to prevent the war before the United States and Israel began bombing.
Turkey got three Turkish-owned vessels through before the cease-fire was announced, flying the flags of Panama, Belize and St. Kitts & Nevis. One, the Ocean Thunder, is carrying about one million barrels of crude oil from Iraq, which Iran said would be exempted from restrictions on transit.
“Turkey has taken a position of active neutrality,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the managing director of the Turkey office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “Turkey’s ability to have three of its ships pass through Hormuz is part of Iran’s appreciation,” he added. “It is basically signaling and telling others, ‘You, too, could have your ships passing if you show some effort.’”
Iran is also rewarding countries for doing business with it. India, which secured passage for eight Indian-flagged ships before the cease-fire was announced, confirmed that it had purchased its first shipment of oil from Iran in seven years. The United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil to ease the supply shortages resulting from the closure of the strait.
Indian officials denied that Iran was receiving money in exchange for allowing Indian vessels to cross the strait. “Amid Middle East supply disruptions, Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports,” the oil ministry said on X.
Mr. Kelly of EOS Risk Group estimated there were nearly 1,000 ships waiting to enter or exit the Persian Gulf. At the current trickle, only a fraction of those will be allowed to transit before the expiration of the two-week cease-fire. And that will give Iran enormous clout in negotiating deals, he said.
“This is the most effective bargaining chip that Iran has got, and will always have,” Mr. Kelly said. “This is going to have a huge impact on global trade and the global economy.”
Ben Hubbard contributed reporting from Istanbul, Elian Peltier from Islamabad, Pakistan, and Pragati K.B. from New Delhi.
Mark Landler is the Paris bureau chief of The Times, covering France, as well as American foreign policy in Europe and the Middle East. He has been a journalist for more than three decades.
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