Donald Trump has given the Iranian regime a two-week deadline to give up its nuclear ambitions, enriched uranium and support for terror. Now the president needs to make sure Iran’s leaders understand: That deadline is firm, and he isn’t going to accept a bad deal. If they don’t agree, military action will recommence.
As Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, explained at a Pentagon press briefing Wednesday: “A ceasefire is a pause, and the joint force remains ready, if ordered or called upon, to resume combat operations.”
The president must make clear he is ready to do just that. Right now, Iran’s leaders are emboldened because they believe that they have made Trump blink — leveraging their control of the Strait of Hormuz to get him to stop the war. The Iranian strategy is obvious: They intend to drag out negotiations as long as possible, hoping that as oil prices recover, Trump will come under increasing domestic pressure not to restart the war.
Trump can disabuse them of that notion by delivering a clear ultimatum: If Iran does not reach an acceptable agreement in two weeks’ time, he will resume major combat operations and bring the war to a final and decisive conclusion without one. This can be done in a matter of weeks.
What would this final stage of military operations look like?
First, the president should direct Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of Centcom, to complete America’s military objectives. That means eliminating the remainder of Iran’s offensive military capabilities — including its ballistic missile, drone and defense industrial capability.
Second, once Iran’s offensive missile capacity has been fully suppressed, the United States can take Kharg Island — through which 90 percent or more of Iran’s oil flows. This will give Trump a stranglehold on Iran’s economy, which he can leverage to force the regime to allow the U.S. to come in and remove all of the country’s enriched uranium. If Iran does not agree, he can destroy the export infrastructure on the island, eliminating the regime’s ability to earn hard currency to rebuild its military and spread terror across the region.
Third, secure Iran’s enriched uranium by establishing a virtual perimeter around it. Declare any sites harboring what Trump calls “nuclear dust” to be no-go zones for the Iranian regime — a “circle of death” that will be monitored 24/7. Enforce the perimeter by killing any Iranian who enters that circle.
Fourth, carry out a final barrage of leadership strikes, eliminating the Iranian officials who had been spared for the purpose of negotiations. Iran’s leaders must be made to understand that their lives literally depend on reaching a negotiated settlement to Trump’s liking. If they refuse to do so, they will be killed.
Fifth, declare an end to major combat operations and issue declaratory policy informing Iran’s remaining leaders that they will not be permitted to rebuild their nuclear, ballistic missile or drone capabilities, funnel money or weapons to terrorist proxies, or fire on protesters. Anyone engaged in those actions will also be killed.
As Trump enforces these policies, the U.S. should develop and implement a covert action plan to support the Iranian opposition. This can be modeled on the Reagan administration’s covert efforts to support Poland’s Solidarity and other democratic opposition movements behind the Iron Curtain in the 1980s. Such a plan could involve supplying the Iranian opposition with weapons, much as the U.S. once provided arms to anti-communist “freedom fighters” across the world.
The overriding goal should be to help the Iranian people, over time, bring down this murderous regime. In the long run, that is the only way to make the military gains of Operation Epic Fury irreversible. Trump is correct that Iran’s regime has undergone “regime change” in a literal sense, because he has killed dozens of its leaders. But if its new leaders won’t capitulate at the negotiating table, it means the character of the regime will not have changed — Iran will still be led by Islamic radicals committed to destroying America and Israel and to obtaining the means to do so. If such a regime remains in power, then the progress the U.S. has made on the battlefield will ultimately be temporary.
Trump is also right to give diplomacy a chance. But for diplomacy to succeed, it must be backed by a credible plan for decisive military action. Right now, Iran’s leaders think they hold all the cards — that like President Barack Obama before him, Trump wants a deal more than they do. He needs to show them that the opposite is true. He does not need a deal to end the war. He can do it unilaterally, successfully and on America’s terms without Iran’s consent.
Trump must draw a clear timeline for the Iranians: They have two weeks. The clock is ticking.
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