As the world held its breath on Tuesday night, news of a ceasefire and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz brought a collective sigh of relief. But with shipments stalled in the strait for over a month, the disruption to global shipping will not resolve immediately.
“Traffic through Hormuz dropped by about 95 percent [during this conflict]. As a result, prices surged, and not just for crude oil, but also for refined products like jet fuel, diesel, and gas oil,” says Carsten Ladekjær, CEO at Glander International Bunkering, which specializes in supplying fuel and lubricants to the global shipping industry.
The impact has been uneven across regions. Countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy—particularly in Asia—have been most affected. India sources around 55 percent of its energy imports from the region, China about 50 percent, Japan 93 percent, South Korea 67 percent, and Singapore 70 percent according to Ladekjær.
While the ceasefire signals a possible reopening, key details remain unclear. “Even with a ceasefire, reopening won’t be immediate,” Ladekjær says. “There’s a backlog, with ships waiting to leave, and likely a controlled process for who gets out first. Iran still appears to be managing that.”
Energy markets reacted quickly. Brent crude fell to around $94 from $110 earlier in the week – a drop of roughly 15 percent.
“Refined products like diesel and jet fuel have dropped even more, because markets are forward-looking—they price in expectations,” says Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst and head of research at Global Risk Management. “But we’re still well above prewar levels, which were around $60 to $70.”
A System Under Backlog
Around 1,000 ships remain in the Gulf, including hundreds of tankers awaiting passage.
As of this writing, more than 800 cargo ships and tankers are stuck inside the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 additional vessels waiting on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz.
Under normal conditions, roughly 150 vessels pass through the strait daily. Experts say clearing the backlog will take time, as ships must be sequenced through, refueled, and repositioned.
“That’s a logistical nightmare. We don’t yet know what the current capacity will be, especially from a security standpoint,” says Lohmann Rasmussen. “It’s not something that can be solved overnight. There are logistical issues, security issues, and even communication challenges.”
Though the market has already seen a correction, that doesn’t mean prices at the pump or in storage drop immediately.
For example, fuel already bought at higher prices is still in the system, so it takes time for cheaper supply to come through, explains Ladekjær. That could take at least a month and in some cases, longer, especially if infrastructure has been damaged.
“I don’t think we’ll return to prewar levels anytime soon,” he adds. “There’s damaged infrastructure, disrupted production and ongoing bottlenecks.”
Across the region, energy infrastructure—including refineries, gas plants, and ports—has been affected by missile and drone strikes.
QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some LNG contracts after facilities were hit, while Saudi Aramco suspended operations at its Ras Tanura refinery following a fire linked to a reported drone attack. Similar incidents have been reported across the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq.
Even if supply resumes, there will be a lag. Storage may have held up during the crisis, but replenishing supply will take time, and prices are expected to remain volatile during this period.
“There are practical challenges too,” say Ladekjær, “Some ships may need new crews, fuel, or maintenance before they can even move. It could take time to clear that backlog.”
Experts say it can take over a month for oil loaded today to reach Asia or Europe, so those delays will keep the system tight. Lohmann Rasmussen expects prices to stabilize somewhere between the recent highs and prewar levels—assuming the ceasefire holds. “If it collapses, we could see new highs,” he warns.
Reopening, With Caution
The industry is now focused on assessing damage and restarting operations. Facilities are being evaluated and gradually brought back online. But there’s always the possibility of the ceasefire breaking down again.
The key is how shipping companies and insurers will view this challenge. “I think many will be hesitant to re-enter the strait until there’s more clarity, because of the risk of being trapped again,” says Lohmann Rasmussen, pointing to the risk of renewed disruption and ongoing communication challenges.
For now, the ceasefire marks a shift, but not a reset. The systems that move energy through the region are restarting, but are not yet back to full capacity.
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