Iran’s downing of an American fighter plane and the dramatic U.S. mission that followed to rescue a stranded airman has provided both countries with fodder to claim a victory, but this chapter could end up propelling them toward further escalation.
Iranian state media on Sunday published photographs of a charred American aircraft and declared that the downing of three American aircraft in three days was a triumph of “divine grace.” Reposting the photograph, Iran’s hard-line speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Ghalibaf, said that “if the United States gets three more victories like this, it will be utterly ruined.”
From the U.S. perspective, President Trump boasted about how American forces were able to pull off a risky ground operation using commandos to rescue a serviceman from deep within enemy territory, even as Iranian forces amassed in the area to hunt him down.
To have both sides so emboldened at this moment is particularly precarious for the region.
“From this point on, this war will become even more dangerous than it was before,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director of the International Crisis Group, a research organization. And with both sides claiming to have the advantage, he added, there is currently little hope of making progress on a diplomatic solution to end the crisis.
Iran is now one day away from Mr. Trump’s ultimatum threatening to strike critical Iranian infrastructure if Tehran does not make a deal with Washington or open the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Without an agreement, he has warned, U.S. forces will begin striking targets like Iranian power plants that could plunge Iran’s population of more than 90 million into darkness. Time was running out, he warned before “all Hell” rains down.
Iran would most likely respond by bombarding similar strategic assets in neighboring Gulf countries, experts said. The results of such an escalation could be devastating for millions of civilians in the region, and wreak further havoc on the global economy and the already volatile markets.
“They both still think they can gain the upper hand in this conflict and end it on their own terms,” Mr. Vaez said.
Sanam Mahoozi contributed reporting from London.
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