The Race for the Future of the Moon

A big space mission like Artemis II can sometimes feel like a unifying moment for humanity. After all, what better than a cold, indifferent cosmos to remind us of our shared status as earthlings?

But humanity’s endeavors in space have always been entangled with humanity’s politics back on Earth. Today, my colleague Selam Gebrekidan, an investigative reporter focused on China’s space program, is writing with a reminder about Artemis II: As awe inspiring as it might be, it’s not a mission to bring humanity together. In fact, it’s part of a high-stakes space race between the U.S. and China. — Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer

A new space race

Like many around the globe, I watched the Artemis II launch this week with the giddy excitement of a child.

It’s the first time humans have headed toward the moon in more than 50 years. The four astronauts will not land on the moon, but they will get to see its far side, the hemisphere that is always turned away from us. If all goes well, they will go farther than any human has ever gone from Earth. And if all goes really well, American astronauts will land on the moon again by 2028. From that point, NASA plans to launch missions every six months and sustain a presence there.

This is an important moment for NASA. The agency got to show off its newish rocket, the Space Launch System, which propelled the astronauts into space without a hitch. NASA will continue to test its spacecraft Orion, which has performed well so far — minus a small issue with its toilet.

It’s also a flex for the space agency at a crucial juncture, because the United States is in the middle of another space race. This one is with China, not the Soviet Union.

And “this time the goal is not flags and footprints,” Jared Isaacman, the NASA administrator, said last week. “This time the goal is to stay.”

Chinese astronauts are aiming for a first moon landing in 2030 — in theory, many months after the U.S. But the Artemis program has been proceeding in fits and starts, while China’s space program has been driving forward with formidable focus. And even NASA acknowledges that it may lose this round.

“They may be early,” Isaacman said. “And recent history suggests we might be late.”

A new frontier

The U.S. vision for the moon is much grander than it was in the Apollo years. So is China’s.

Each country wants to build a base near the southern pole, where it can extract resources like frozen water, hydrogen and helium. Each wants to build nuclear reactors to power its lunar bases. Each wants to launch missions from the moon and go deeper into space.

Whoever is first to establish a lunar base will most likely have a greater say over what others can do on the moon, which, at the moment, is a frontier with few laws or rules.

Take the question of long-term power sources, for example. Last year, NASA put out a directive to fast-track its plans for nuclear reactors on the moon, in part because if China, along with Russia, builds a reactor first it could “potentially declare a keep-out zone,” Sean Duffy, the secretary of transportation who temporarily led NASA, said.

China’s space program is still young. But it has accomplished a lot in a short time. Its robotic missions have gone to the far side of the moon and brought back samples, feats only the Chinese have pulled off.

Experts I spoke to said that China’s advantage when it comes to space lies in its centralized control. It can set goals years in advance, fund its projects and hit milestones on time. NASA’s budgets and goals are shaped by U.S. domestic politics. The cadence of China’s work will be the same no matter what NASA does with Artemis, one scientist who works on the lunar program told me.

A human concern, not just a political one

The U.S.’s near-term goals for the moon are ambitious: Because the U.S. has already sent people to the moon, Artemis is hoping to send astronauts to the south pole, where no humans have gone before. China’s immediate goals are more attainable. The country’s first landing will be on the near side of the moon, the region where Neil Armstrong took “one giant leap for mankind” in 1969.

Even if NASA loses this round, it won’t determine the final outcome of this new space race. It will be a while before the U.S. or China can establish a prolonged presence on the moon; a few crewed missions are unlikely to execute on either country’s grand ambitions.

But they will set the tone for who seems to be heading for dominance. And this is a race that the rest of the world has a stake in.

Most other countries, realistically, won’t be active participants. Some dream of the moon — India has landed a rover near the southern pole, and Russia has its Luna program — but it is likely to be the U.S. or China who shapes its future.

Other countries won’t just be passive observers, though: Canada has an astronaut on board the Artemis II mission. Others are sending scientific instruments, on both the Chinese and American missions. The relationships that shape geopolitics on Earth could wind up shaping science in space.

But beyond that, this is a race for who claims control of Earth’s natural satellite. That makes it a human concern, not just a geopolitical one. We all have a stake in the future of the moon. (Read my story about China’s lunar ambitions.)

For more:

Look back on the first human spaceflight to reach the moon, 58 years ago, and the picture that would forever be known as “Earthrise.”
Scroll through highlights from the launch.

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