President Trump has unapologetically wielded the power of the United States on the global stage, taking a much more belligerent approach economically and militarily to try to dictate the actions of other countries.
From high tariffs to the war with Iran, Mr. Trump has claimed that this aggressive behavior internationally has only upsides, and that past leaders were fools for refusing to tap into America’s power.
But one clear drawback of the strategy is emerging. While many countries have acceded to the president’s demands, some have found a highly effective new way to fight back. Mr. Trump’s aggression has given them the opportunity to test their control over choke points, threatening the United States and the global economy.
One such choke point is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, which accounts for less than 1 percent of global economic output, has control over the shipping lane that transports a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Its closure since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran at the end of February has blocked shipments of fuel, fertilizer and other goods, sending gas prices sharply higher and spreading anxiety among U.S. farmers and manufacturers.
Another experiment in retaliatory coercion began one year ago on Thursday, when Mr. Trump walked into the Rose Garden and unveiled tariffs on what he called “Liberation Day.” While many governments — even powerful economies like the European Union — complied with U.S. demands, China was a notable exception. Beijing rolled out a licensing system for exports of rare-earth minerals and magnets that has given China unparalleled control over the global manufacturing system.
Makers of cars, semiconductors, fighter jets and other goods — the backbone of a U.S. factory system that Mr. Trump wants to revive — depend on rare earths, most of which are processed in China.
While China is approving some licenses and allowing some rare earths to flow, supplies for many manufacturers are running short. And China has cut off exports of these materials to companies that work for the U.S. military, leaving them struggling to find other suppliers. Mr. Trump’s decision to delay a visit to China by roughly six weeks until mid-May worried some executives who hoped that his meeting with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, could alleviate the pressure.
The difficulties underscore an inconvenient truth for the president: As powerful as the American economy is, its inextricable links with the rest of the world can still bring it to its knees.
Edward Fishman, the author of “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” said the rest of the world had seen how the mineral controls had gotten Mr. Trump to back off China last year. Since Mr. Trump threatened in January to take over Greenland, even European officials had been searching for potential choke points in U.S. trade, Mr. Fishman said.
“The lesson is that the way to deal with American economic coercion is to fight back,” he said. “Iran now is proving that again.”
China began designing a system of rare-earth controls before the re-election of Mr. Trump, whose strategy is not entirely new: The United States has a long history of weaponizing supply chains, from using its control of the global banking system to punish enemy nations to trying to halt the flow of advanced artificial intelligence technology to China.
But Mr. Trump stepped up American antagonism, with tools ranging from tariffs to military strikes. One of his basic principles has been that the United States should do a better job of leveraging its power. He argues that, as the world’s biggest consumer market, the United States can force other countries to trade on terms less favorable for them, and that with the world’s most powerful military, it can remove heads of state from Venezuela to Iran.
Mr. Trump has dismissed any criticism that those actions violate international alliances, laws or conventions, preferring to see the world in terms of raw power. The countries that have done best against him, like China, seem to recognize that same principle, responding in economically destructive ways to try to force him to back down.
It remains to be seen whether Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz persuades Mr. Trump to call off his campaign. But the disruption appears to be encouraging him to try to bring the war to a quicker end.
In an address to the nation on Wednesday night, Mr. Trump said that the United States received “almost no oil” through the strait, and that countries that did “must take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on.”
“In any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally,” he added.
Oil prices surged and stocks sank on Thursday after the address.
The United States has been more insulated from the economic aftershocks of the shutdown of the strait than closer economies in Europe, Asia and Africa. But more expensive global energy and tighter supplies of fertilizer, aluminum, helium and other products from the Middle East are still pushing up prices and slowing economic activity in the United States, creating a problem for the Republican Party as midterm elections approach. Higher fuel costs are trickling into the price of fresh food, and rates for international shipping have risen sharply, adding to the cost of importing goods to the United States.
Analysts at Evercore ISI projected on Wednesday that the U.S. economy would grow 2.2 percent this year, rather than 2.8 percent, because of the war and the accompanying energy shock, while core inflation would tick up 0.2 percentage points.
“The U.S. is now heading for a subpar year relative to its potential rather than a strong and above-trend year,” they wrote.
U.S. manufacturers have been quieter about the effect of Chinese rare-earth restrictions, to avoid panicking investors or angering the Chinese government. But many industries are deeply worried about limitations on those shipments and a thinning supply.
China’s controls are having some effect on companies that make M.R.I. and CT machines that use rare earths to do imaging, as well as those that make the magnets inside the machines, said Geoff Martha, the chief executive of Medtronic, a U.S. medical equipment manufacturer, at an event on Monday at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
The industry has engaged with the Trump administration and the Chinese government to try to obtain licenses for exports, he said.
“What we’re finding, it takes work, it creates supply chain disruption, it’s a distraction. But we’re seeing an ability to work through these so far,” Mr. Martha added.
Gina M. Raimondo, who was secretary of commerce in the Biden administration, said at the same event that the Trump administration had seemed surprised by China’s move to weaponize mineral supply chains. She was not, she said.
“It is a huge leverage point that China has over the United States,” she said. She argued that there were plenty of other levers that the U.S. should be attuned to.
For a typical artificial intelligence data center, for example, “most Americans would be alarmed of the dependency we have on China,” Ms. Raimondo said, adding, “China is very aware of that, and they’re going to do everything they can do to maintain that advantage.”
Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics for The Times and is based in Washington. She has been a journalist for more than a decade.
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