Multiple U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed in recent days that the Iranian government is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations over ending the U.S.-Israeli war, according to U.S. officials.
The assessments say the Iranian government believes it is in a strong position in the war and does not have to accede to America’s diplomatic demands, the officials said. And while Iran is willing to keep channels open, they said, it does not trust the United States and does not think President Trump is serious about negotiations.
In the last year, Mr. Trump has ordered attacks on Iran twice in the middle of negotiations over the country’s nuclear program.
The assessments align with recent statements from Iranian officials, who reject Mr. Trump’s assertion that the two sides are making progress in discussions mediated by other countries. A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that the government in Tehran had not asked for a cease-fire, despite a statement from Mr. Trump that morning that it had, an Iranian state news agency reported.
Mr. Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. military would wrap up its campaign against Iran in two to three weeks. But any decision by Iran that it should continue fighting would complicate that objective. The president is scheduled to make a speech about the war on Wednesday night.
The Iranian government could engage diplomatically under the right conditions, said two Iranian officials and a Pakistani official. Tehran wants to see that Washington is willing to talk seriously about ending the war and not just negotiate a temporary cease-fire, they said. Those officials and American ones spoke on the condition of anonymity for this article because of the sensitivities around wartime diplomacy and intelligence.
Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Wednesday that Iran’s “New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!” But he said he would not consider that until Iran allowed ships to safely cross the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian military has effectively closed by attacking oil tankers.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said on Wednesday that Mr. Trump’s claim that his country had asked for a cease-fire was “false and baseless,” according to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, or IRIB, the state news organization.
The dilemma over the strait has become a pivot point in the war, as its closure roils global markets and forces countries around the world to make plans to ration fuel.
It was also unclear to whom Mr. Trump was referring when he said “New Regime President.” The initial attacks by the United States and Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and some senior officials, but the president of Iran since 2024, Masoud Pezeshkian, is alive and remains in office. Iranian clerics have appointed a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the hard-line son of the deceased ayatollah who suffered leg injuries in the first strikes and has not been seen in public, according to Iranian and Israeli officials.
The United States and Iran are exchanging messages through intermediaries and perhaps directly, but are not in negotiations over terms of a cease-fire or ending the war, U.S. and Iranian officials said.
Mr. Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, on Wednesday released a letter addressed to the American people that suggested diplomacy might be possible, while also saying Iran would defy hostile powers. It was unclear whether the letter represented a consensus among Iranian leaders. On Tuesday, Mr. Pezeshkian said that the Trump administration’s attacks during previous negotiations demonstrated that the United States “does not believe in diplomacy and is merely seeking to impose its own interests.”
Mr. Trump has repeatedly spoken of the possibility of ending the war with a diplomatic settlement, but he has also threatened to escalate the war and expand the range of U.S. targets to energy infrastructure and desalination plants, attacks that many legal experts say would be war crimes.
The intelligence assessments, which appear in multiple reports, have been consistent since the beginning of the conflict, one official said.
Senior Iranian officials continue to resist making the kinds of concessions on its nuclear program and ballistic missile production that the Trump administration has demanded.
Iran says it has a right to build a civilian nuclear program by enriching uranium, which U.S. officials oppose. And Iranian officials see the military’s ballistic missiles as the country’s main form of deterrence, analysts say. Iranian officials perceive the United States and Israel pressuring Iran to give up both of those as an infringement on the country’s sovereignty.
Mr. Trump and his top aides have vacillated in their public statements on their war goals and whether the U.S. military has already achieved them, which complicates any efforts at diplomacy.
In recent days, Mr. Trump has said that the United States has already destroyed two regimes in Iran in this war, and that a third, more complaint one is now in place. However, the current government, led by Mr. Khamenei, remains theocratic, authoritarian and anti-American, and has vowed to carry on the fight against the Americans.
Mr. Trump has pointed to other goals: He has said he wants to seize Iran’s oil, and he brings up the nuclear program regularly. He also has discussed with U.S. military leaders whether American troops could enter Iran to seize a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that is believed to be in tunnels sealed by rubble as a result of American airstrikes last June.
The difficulties of diplomacy are exacerbated by the fact that major parts of the Iranian government are unable to communicate effectively after weeks of strikes by Israel and the United States.
Iranian officials are also wary of using certain communications channels they think are under surveillance by U.S. and Israeli spy agencies. The resulting confusion inside the government contributes to a lack of clarity on who in the Iranian leadership has the authority to make a deal, American officials said.
Iranian officials think they are fighting for the government’s very survival, given the strength of the American and Israeli attack, according to current and former officials. Some Iranian officials are skeptical that any peace deal would be lasting. Their leadership fears Israel could carry out a new attack months later even if Iran were to enter into a deal, U.S. officials said.
The U.S. intelligence assessments saying that Iran is not currently ready to make a deal have not been previously reported. The Washington Post earlier reported that U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iranian officials think they have the upper hand in the war.
Pakistan has become an intermediary in the diplomatic efforts because of ties between Pakistani and Iranian military leaders. In recent days, Pakistan has persuaded China to join it in publicly calling for an end to the war. China has commercial and military ties to Iran and is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, but has been reluctant to engage in substantial diplomacy on the war.
China and Pakistan put out a joint five-point statement on Tuesday that called for, among other things, a cessation of hostilities and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic. Iran has been letting China-bound ships cross the strait, but countries across Asia and elsewhere are starting to plan for dire fuel shortages.
Asked whether China could be a guarantor of a diplomatic agreement, Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement that “China supports all efforts conducive to easing tensions, de-escalating the situation and restoring dialogue.
“We call on parties to start peace talks as soon as possible,” he added. “We stand ready to enhance communication and coordination with Pakistan and others to jointly work for a cease-fire and peace and stability in the region.”
Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting from New York, and Leily Nikounazar contributed research from Brussels.
Edward Wong reports on global affairs, U.S. foreign policy and the State Department for The Times.
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