Spring has arrived, and it’s moving in fast forward.
After the coldest winter in more than two decades, March flipped the script, averaging about 5 degrees above normal in the D.C. area despite multiple large temperature swings. The overall warmth accelerated blooms and kicked pollen season into high gear. April looks set to follow suit.
We expect the month to run 3 to 6 degrees warmer than normal. Like March, it also appears likely to be drier than average, with rainfall projected to come in 1 to 2 inches below normal. That would continue a persistent drought pattern — only one month since June, January, has been wetter than average.
What models forecast for the month
We have high confidence the month will get off to a warm start, with several days in the 70s and 80s, though Thursday may run cooler, especially north of D.C.
Temperatures then look to ease back closer to normal in the second week, with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s.
Beyond that, models generally point to warmer-than-normal conditions returning around the third week, followed by a potential cooldown toward the end of the month. Confidence is lower that far out.
As for precipitation, the first week should bring several chances for showers and storms, with totals of about a half-inch to an inch. After that, models lean toward near- to below-normal rainfall.
What’s typical in April and what’s more unusual
April is a bridge between the wild temperature swings of March and the relative calm of May.
Average highs climb from the low 60s at the start of the month to the low 70s by the end. Overnight lows rise from the low 40s into the low 50s, though they’re often 5 to 10 degrees cooler outside the city.
While April is usually less volatile than March, it can still deliver some sharp extremes. Record highs are generally in the low to mid-90s, while record lows dip into the 20s and 30s. Many areas see their last freeze during the month, marking the start of the growing season.
Rainfall averages 3.21 inches. Totals are typically moderate, but April can bring bouts of severe weather, including thunderstorms and even tornadoes. One of the most notable events was the devastating La Plata tornado on April 28, 2002, rated F4 on the Fujita scale.
Snow is still possible, though increasingly rare. Measurable snowfall hasn’t occurred locally in April since 2007, when 0.4 inches fell on the 7th. The largest April snowfall on record — 5.5 inches — came on April 1, 1924.
Recapping March
March averaged 52.7 degrees — 5.1 degrees above normal — ranking as the eighth warmest on record. It reached 80 degrees or higher on four days, the most in March since 2012.
Despite the overall warmth, there were brief returns to winter. Nine of the 31 days came in colder than normal.
What stood out were four sharp cold fronts, each bringing 24-hour temperature swings of at least 30 degrees. The most intense, on March 11, sent temperatures tumbling 53 degrees, among the largest swings on record. Fronts on March 16, 22 and 26 brought drops of 39, 42 and 31 degrees.
Precipitation totaled 1.9 inches, about 1.6 inches below normal. Snowfall came in at 1 inch, also about an inch below average.
We predicted March would be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal, and the month ended up slightly warmer than that range. We expected near-normal precipitation, which missed given the significant deficit, but our call for up to an inch of snow verified.
Matt Rogers and Ian Livingston contributed to this report.
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