On Wednesday, Google said it was moving up the date it needs to prepare for when quantum computers will be able to break current encryption algorithms to 2029, catching experts off-guard.
This hypothetical turning point, called Q Day, is an ominous reminder that advances in the world of quantum computing could have seismic implications in our information age that we need to prepare for, and not all of them good.
“Quantum computers will pose a significant threat to current cryptographic standards, and specifically to encryption and digital signatures,” Google said in its Wednesday announcement, penned by Heather Adkins, Google’s VP of security engineering, and Sophie Schmieg, a senior cryptography engineer at the company.
Classical computers use bits to store information in a binary state, either as a one or a zero. Quantum computers, on the other hand, use quantum particles called qubits that, due to a spooky quantum property called superposition, can be in two states at once. This allows q-bits to store more information than a traditional bit.
Another quantum property at play is entanglement, in which two particles can share the same state, meaning that any change to one of the pair’s states is immediately reflected in the other’s. A quantum computer takes advantage of this to quickly recruit more q-bits during a calculation, perhaps performing several calculations at the same time.
Combined, that means that a quantum computer could solve math problems at unprecedented speed and make mincemeat out of current encryption algorithms. Or at least hypothetically; right now, quantum computers are struggling to deliver due to persistent a noise problem. The quantum states the qubits are suspended in are incredibly fragile, something that physicists are struggling to clamp down on. Noisy qubits means errors and wrong calculations.
The hypothetical point that a quantum computer would be able to solve a math problem that a classic one can’t, called quantum supremacy, is still yet to be achieved. Still, advances have been forthcoming, and experts — chief among them those at Google — have been sounding the alarm for adopting post-quantum cryptography, or PQC.
“As a pioneer in both quantum and PQC, it’s our responsibility to lead by example and share an ambitious timeline,” the Google announcement read. “By doing this, we hope to provide the clarity and urgency needed to accelerate digital transitions not only for Google, but also across the industry.”
It’s unclear, however, why Google moved up its date for Q Day, and it’s raised a few eyebrows in the field.
“That is certainly a significant acceleration/tightening of the public transition timelines we’ve seen to date, and is accelerated over even what we’ve seen the US government ask for,” Brian LaMacchia, a cryptography engineer who led Microsoft’s PQC efforts from 2015 to 2022, told Ars Technica. “The 2029 timeline is an aggressive speedup but raises the question of what’s motivating them.”
The Ars reporting flags several advances that could’ve informed Google’s decision, which have collectively dispelled the original assumption that a quantum computer would need a billion qubits to break a 2048-bit RSA key, a widely used cryptosystem. Most notable was a study Google published last June showing that a quantum computer would only need one million “noisy qubits” to crack the code, suggesting that even a cruder and still error-prone quantum machine could break in.
More on quantum science: Large Hadron Collider Discovers All-New Particle
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