The world’s energy system has felt a series of dramatic shocks over the last few months—beginning with the ousting of Nicolás Maduro and continuing through the U.S. invasion of Iran. One might think this would stoke reinvention. But instead of responding rashly, quickly ramping up production or accelerating the buildout of alternatives, the energy sector seems to have entered a holding pattern. Capital, instead, flows to anything connected with AI. Everything else: wait and see.
At CERAWeek by S&P Global, the annual Houston gathering of the top officials in the energy sector from around the world, this dynamic was on full display. In the main stage conversation, executives emphasized both the dramatic toll of the current crisis and its likelihood to continue. Time and again executives said that the price of oil had not risen substantially enough to reflect the scale of the growing crisis. At a minimum, recovery will take months and it’s more likely to last into 2027. “The fundamentals are very tight, and so the markets are trading on scant information,” said Chevron CEO Mike Wirth at a fireside chat Monday.
And yet the major players are offering no signal of a strategic shift. Wirth talked about using technology to extract more from existing wells—not big plays to drill new wells. The conversation that emerged from hallway chats was even clearer: it’s hard to make big moves with so many balls in the air. And, while there may be an internal debate at some companies about whether to produce more, market chaos favors sitting still
For close watchers of the energy sector, this may not be particularly new or surprising. Oil and gas companies have been reluctant to make big investments for much of the last decade, fearful that they may not be able to make a healthy return without sustained higher prices. And, despite President Donald Trump’s avowed support for oil and gas, many of his biggest decisions—from tariffs to armed conflict—have left the industry feeling confused and concerned.
Clean energy companies are even more puzzled. They offer a wide range of energy technologies—from wind power to electric vehicles—that could help respond to price shocks. And yet they face an even greater set of challenges as the Trump Administration pulls permits and pursues a wide range of regulatory levers to slow development. At CERAWeek, the administration went as far as to announce a deal to refund French energy company Total $1 billion for its offshore wind leases in exchange for investing in natural gas instead.
“In terms of allocation of capital… it’s better not to invest in this one,” said Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné as he shared a dais with a gleaming Interior Secretary Doug Burgum at CERAWeek. Instead, he said, the company should “continue to invest in other things.”
The holding pattern gives space for others to jump in and shape the market. Technology companies have stepped into the fold by default. Their deep cash reserves and the robust competition to dominate AI leaves them all-but immune to price swings. And their investments in energy technology move markets today.
In Houston this year, the main stage featured top executives from the world’s biggest tech firms. They talked up not just their investments in AI but also their enormous spending on energy.
“We’re very committed to adding capacity as we continue to build our data centers,” said Ruth Porat, president and chief investment officer at Alphabet and Google. “We’re doing this with nuclear. We’re doing it with carbon capture. We’re doing it with all those things.”
These tech firms are engaging with the energy sector to serve their own power needs, but their choices—and the immense capital that comes along with those choices—will shape the market for everyone else. The capital allocation decisionspr made by big tech firms have the potential to bring new technologies to market (think of nuclear fusion or small modular reactors) with a few well executed and capitalized deals. And hyperscalers now have enough sway in the market to push power prices higher—or lower—based on where they set up shop and how they engage with the market.
“The future of the electricity industry in the United States is being decided in Seattle and Cupertino,” says David Crane, the CEO of energy infrastructure investment firm Generate Capital and a former undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Energy. “It’s not being decided in Washington.”
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