As the Trump administration makes what is says are initial peace overtures to Iran, U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, initially skittish about the war, have become fearful of a hasty settlement that leaves the region less stable than it was a month ago, officials and analysts say.
While Iran has been battered by nearly a month of U.S.-Israeli attacks, the war has not succeeded in toppling its government. Instead, it appears to have made the leadership in Tehran even more defiant and hard-line.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying for a decisive end to the war, through diplomatic or military means, according to a person briefed on that matter and three officials involved in the affairs of the region, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to share details with the media.
If Tehran doesn’t agree to severe restrictions on its missile, drone and nuclear programs, Saudi and Emirati leadership have indicated they would support an escalated military campaign aimed at pressuring concessions at the negotiating table, the officials, two European and one Arab, said.
Tehran, for its part, says it is not engaged in talks, and does not appear ready to give in.
Tehran’s moves to choke marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, devastating energy supply chains, and the attacks it launched on energy infrastructure in the region this month were particularly concerning in the Gulf, and cited by multiple officials as methods that a ceasefire without costs for Iran could incentivize.
“They are not asking Trump to escalate the war immediately, but to create the conditions for a decent interlocutor on the other shore of the Gulf once the war is over,” said a European official in regular contact with the Persian Gulf monarchies. “I never heard, ‘Let’s get the job done,’ but that is the spirit. The spirit is fueling the action,” he said of his recent meetings in the region.
At the beginning of the war, some Persian Gulf officials appeared more confident in the idea of regime change, but after seeing the limited impact of fierce U.S. and Israeli operations on the standing of the Iranian government, U.S. regional allies are now hoping military operations can change the behavior of Tehran, officials and analysts said.
“They want a humble Iran,” said a senior European official. He said the Arab Gulf states are nearly uniform in this aim. Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain support the Saudi and Emirati positions, but have held back on actively lobbying the Trump administration, he said. The only outlier is Oman, which remains opposed to the war with Iran and continues to advocate for Tehran on the regional stage. “They are like the lawyer of Tehran,” he said.
Regional officials say the messages they are hearing from Iran indicate the country is not willing to agree to the kinds of curbs to its missile and drone programs that they want. Ending the conflict now without serious repercussions would also incentivize further Iranian attacks, Arab officials have argued.
“Iran believes they are winning,” and agreeing to a ceasefire now would set a precedent that Tehran can launch attacks against its neighbors and shut the strait of Hormuz for leverage in the future, in the view of one of the Arab officials. He said other regional officials are also concerned that Iran-backed militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, would be empowered if the United States agreed to a ceasefire now. Following a Hezbollah attack on Israel in support of Iran, Israel has gone to war in Lebanon, killing more than 1,000 people and displacing more than 1 million, according to Lebanese authorities.
Senior Iranian officials maintain a bellicose tone. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, said in a post on X that Iran is monitoring U.S. troops movements amid reports of additional U.S. troops arriving in the region. “Do not test our resolve to defend our land,” he said.
The UAE Foreign Ministry responded to queries about its position on a U.S. peace deal with Iran with a statement condemning Iranian attacks. The Saudi Foreign Ministry did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
Iranian retaliatory attacks in the Persian Gulf have jarred the region, from national leadership to local residents. Iranian drone attacks struck luxury hotels, airports and energy infrastructure, already causing tens of billions of dollars in damages.
For Qatar, the attack on Ras Laffan, the country’s main natural gas facility, was a turning point in the conflict. “It was a big shock to the system here,” said Nawaf bin Mubarak Al Thani, Qatar’s former defense attaché in Washington, who runs a center promoting diplomacy and mediation in Doha. He said ending the conflict is Qatar’s priority, but in light of the Iranian attacks on Qatar, Doha decided to pause its mediation efforts.
“To the relationship moving forward. Things will never go back to where they were before,” he said.
Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political analyst, said Gulf leaders had warned the United States against war with Iran. Nearly a month in, he said his own message would be: “Finish the job.”
The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have deployed active defenses against Iran’s attacks, including attack helicopters and warplanes to shoot down Iranian drones without entering Iranian airspace. However, as the conflict drags on, some are beginning to advocate for direct military involvement.
The “option for diplomacy still stands but that window is closing by day,” said Mohammed Baharoon, director general of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center, an Emirati think thank.
He said the war, from the Emerati perspective, should be prosecuted like the treatment of gangrene: “You put all of the effort to treat it and avoid amputation, but if you are faced with an expansion, then you must amputate.”
U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf “want to reestablish some sort of balance of deterrence,” attempting to identify ways to dissuade continued Iranian attacks without making themselves more vulnerable, said Andreas Krieg, a Middle East analyst and lecturer at Kings College London. But their options are limited. Iran has launched attacks against civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, but many rungs on the escalation ladder remain unclimbed, he said.
“Iran will not forget, the regime is going to survive,” said Kreig. “The Gulf states have to do a cost-benefit analysis. They always have to live next to Iran, so they’re kind of prisoners of geography in many ways.”
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