Betting on Everything

After the U.S. attacked Iran, it emerged that the night before, hundreds of bets predicting the strike had been placed on Polymarket, a prediction market site. Those people made a lot of money — and left a lot of others wondering whether they had inside information.

The same thing happened before U.S. Special Forces captured the Venezuelan president. And before the Oscars.

Prediction markets have become a big deal, and not just in America. As my colleague David Yaffe-Bellany explains, the companies are American, the regulatory battles are American, but the betting is global — and it’s changing the way people are thinking about wars, elections and the truth. You can read our conversation below.

Place your bets on everything

So, David, before we get into all of the controversies, what exactly are prediction markets? And why is everyone talking about them?

Basically, these are sites where people can bet on virtually anything. Sports, of course, but also: Will the U.S. strike Iran? When will Taylor Swift get married? Will this politician use that word in a speech tomorrow? You buy a contract priced between zero and a dollar, with the price reflecting the overall market odds. If you’re right, it pays out a dollar.

Have you ever done this?

The New York Times kindly staked me $20 to try on Polymarket to get some insight into how it operates. I was able to make a little money off bets on Manchester United, my favorite football team.

What struck me was how gamified these sites are. They’re designed to suck you in. I get emails all the time that basically say: “Look at this exciting thing that’s happening in the world! Why don’t you bet on it?’

So when did this grow from a niche internet thing into a big deal?

These platforms exploded during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Trump was posting the odds on Truth Social, Elon Musk was putting them on X. And they’ve been a little controversial from the start: There were questions over whether an individual was betting a huge amount of money on Trump. And then the concern was whether that could have an impact on how people viewed the race, and what they ultimately did at the ballot box.

But it goes way beyond sports and politics. Nearly $12 billion was traded on Polymarket and Kalshi, the two biggest sites, in December alone. The Golden Globes featured Polymarket odds during the live telecast. They’re kind of everywhere now.

And the day before the U.S. and Israel first hit Iran, more than 150 anonymous Polymarket accounts placed big bets correctly predicting the attack. How big a concern is insider trading?

It’s a big concern. The platforms offer bets on just about everything, so there’s a lot of insider knowledge out there. You might be someone who knows whether Jeff Bezos will attend the Super Bowl, for example. Around the time of the U.S. raid on Venezuela, a suspicious pattern of bets suggested someone cashed in on advance knowledge of the military operation.

Is there any regulatory oversight?

There used to be more. In the U.S., prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has some rules designed to prevent insider trading. But it’s a gray area how those rules are applied.

Several years ago, Polymarket was fined by the C.F.T.C. for operating without proper registration and was pushed overseas. All the headline-grabbing markets — the bets on the Iran strikes, on Venezuela, on the ayatollah’s fate — are available only on Polymarket’s overseas platform, though Americans can use them by hiding their location with a VPN. Polymarket’s U.S. site offers only sports bets.

And under Trump, the regulatory landscape has become more favorable. Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Do we know if Trump himself, or his family, is making money on these prediction markets?

We don’t have evidence that anyone in the family is placing bets based on things they know from inside the White House. What we do know is that Trump Media — the company that owns Truth Social — is building its own prediction market, so there’s a pathway for the Trumps to make money as operators of one of these things.

The other concern raised by your reporting is that these sites are becoming a source of misinformation. Polymarket calls itself “News 2.0.” What’s going on there?

Polymarket says it’s an alternative source of truth. The argument is that the markets themselves give reasonably accurate forecasts on certain things. But its social media feed is very different: It’s full of quasi-breaking-news updates designed to get people betting. Our analysis found a pattern of intriguing but misleading statements, including some that are just plain wrong. There’s a perverse incentive loop — a false post moves the market, and when the market moves it draws more people in.

So, David, to finish, what does the popularity of these prediction markets say about the cultural and political moment we’re in?

One of Kalshi’s founders described his goal as “the financialization of everything,” which basically is the idea that every opinion, every decision, can be converted into a trade. To some people that’s exciting; to others there’s something dystopian about every corner of life boiling down to a profit opportunity.

MORE TOP NEWS

Trump threatens Iran, extends deadline

Trump piled pressure on Iran to accept his plan to end the war, warning that otherwise “we’ll just keep blowing them away.” But he also extended a deadline for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face an attack on its power stations. In a social media post, Trump said the pause was “per Iranian Government request” and would end on April 6.

U.S. stocks tumbled 1.7 percent, their biggest drop since the beginning of the war, and oil prices continued rising, as investors fretted about when the war would end.

Earlier in the day, Israel said it had killed a naval commander who had been leading Iran’s effort to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route.

Follow our live updates.

Other developments:

Kharg Island exports 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil. It’s also a potential U.S. target. Watch my colleague Peter Eavis explain in the video below.

European officials worry that Russia is preparing to deliver advanced drones to Iran.
Asian economies are getting crushed between oil prices and the dollar.
Iran will allow Malaysian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Malaysia’s prime minister said.

The Olympics barred trans women

The International Olympic Committee barred transgender athletes from competing in the women’s category at the Olympics. The rule will apply starting at the next Games, in Los Angeles in 2028.

All athletes in women’s events will have to undergo genetic testing, the I.O.C. said. “At the Olympic Games, even the smallest margins can be the difference between victory and defeat,” said Kirsty Coventry, the I.O.C. president and a former Olympic swimmer. “So, it is absolutely clear that it would not be fair for biological males to compete in the female category. In addition, in some sports it would simply not be safe.”

OTHER NEWS

The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to surrender the Donbas region in exchange for security guarantees, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Reuters interview.
A U.S. blockade is crippling Cuba’s health care system, an institution once considered a triumph for a poor nation.
Many Catholic churches across the U.S. are welcoming high numbers of new converts. Bishops are confounded by what is behind it.
Millions of dollars’ worth of U.S.A.I.D.-funded contraceptives destined for Africa are going bad in Belgium after the aid program was dismantled.
The OnlyFans owner Leonid Radvinsky, who turned the website into a porn powerhouse, died at 43.

Top of The World

The most clicked link in your newsletter yesterday was about how strengthening your butt muscles is linked to healthy aging.

SPORTS

World Cup: Is Italy about to miss out on the tournament? Follow our live coverage of the qualifying playoff.

Tennis: Arthur Fils saved four consecutive match points to advance to the Miami Open semifinals. The men’s final is on Sunday.

ADVICE OF THE DAY

Shave it all off

For balding men, deciding whether to accept thinning hair or fight their fate can feel existential. In one corner of the internet — the Reddit forum r/Bald — users are cheered and congratulated for reaching for the clippers.

MORNING READ

Zhang Xuefeng became China’s best-known education influencer thanks to his no-nonsense advice about how to succeed in the country’s educational grind. He would say, for example, that liberal arts studies were good only for service jobs, and that pursuing a career in finance was pointless without family connections.

When Zhang died this week at 41 of cardiac arrest, the news prompted an outpouring of shock but also of reflection. On Chinese social media, people asked: Had he steered Chinese youth to better lives or preyed on their anxiety? And if life was so unpredictable, did planning so carefully even matter? Read about his legacy.

AROUND THE WORLD

A phone-free childhood in an Irish town

In Greystones, Ireland, just south of Dublin, kids stroll around town, hang out at the beach, play sports and collect coins. And, for the most part, they don’t carry smartphones.

Three years ago, parents and community leaders adopted a “no smart devices” code to try to free their children from the grip of social media. The voluntary effort appears to be working, mostly because nearly everyone has bought in. Charlie Hess, one of the young coin collectors, said he hoped to get a smartphone when he’s 15 or 16. Until then? “I think I have better things to do,” he said. Read more about how the town made it work.

RECIPE

Karpatka, also known as Polish Mountain cake, gets its name from the Carpathian Mountains. This version of the dessert, a Polish bakery staple, adds an untraditional cherry compote to the creamy custard filling. Watch how to make it in the video above.

WHERE IS THIS?

Where is this coastline?

BEFORE YOU GO …

Just a quick note that I’ll be away next week. My editor, Alicia Wittmeyer, will be your host until I’m back. You’re in great hands. I look forward to reading, rather than writing, the newsletter for a while!

I’ll be skiing. It’s my favorite kind of family holiday. There’s something about being in the mountains: The rush of racing my 14-year-old daughter down the steepest black diamond run in the valley (I still win). The meditative humming of the chairlift as it slides up the mountain. But also, the intensity of ordinary feelings like hunger and physical exhaustion that my regular urban work life rarely allows. Eating and sleeping are so much better in the snow!

Apropos of skiing, one of my all-time favorite films is set in a ski resort. “Force Majeure” is a brilliantly dark comedy-drama about a seemingly perfect marriage ripped out of its complacency by an avalanche. No one dies — it’s more subtle than that. The dialogue is hilariously real, and real cringe.

You can read my colleague’s review and see some clips here. It’s by the Swedish director Ruben Ostlund, who also made “Triangle of Sadness,” which I’ve recommended here before.

One of my guilty pleasures is skiing with music in my ear. One song that will be on repeat next week is “Elegantly Wasted” by Hermanos Gutiérrez (with the great Leon Bridges). It’s addictive.

Have a great weekend! — Katrin