Asia’s Energy Crisis Stings

The oil shocks of the 1970s have become a go-to reference point for the worst kind of global energy crisis. Nothing has quite compared to them — until now.

By some metrics, the crisis provoked by the Iran war is already worse. It’s so bad that President Trump, who attacked Iran last month, eased sanctions not just on Russia but also on Iran itself to try to keep prices from rising further. And it could get worse still.

Today I write about the 2026 energy crisis, and how it’s already affecting millions of people around the world in very concrete ways.

Short showers and no elevators

If you live in South Korea, the government has just asked you to take shorter showers and use the washing machine on weekends only. In Nepal, your family might be eating their dinner cold because of an acute shortage of cooking gas. And if you’re organizing a funeral in Pune, India, you can’t have a gas cremation — gas is being rationed for the living.

In Laos, over 40 percent of gas stations are closed. Thai public servants have been told to take the stairs instead of using elevators. Sri Lanka just made Wednesdays a public holiday, forcing factories, shops and schools to close.

There is no country in the world that has not been affected by the oil price spike prompted by the war on Iran. From American gas prices to European heating bills, the cost of living is going up.

But in many countries, the impact goes beyond inflation: In Asia, a region heavily dependent on energy exports from the Persian Gulf, precariously low gas and oil reserves are already upending daily life.

In the Philippines, which declared a national emergency yesterday, one newspaper published a column with a particularly pointed headline. “Nation on brink: This oil crisis may destroy everything we built.”

Not a quick fix

The sheer scale of the shock is worth pausing on. Last week, the head of the International Energy Agency told The Financial Times that the war in Iran was the biggest threat to global energy security in history. He said more oil had come off the markets all at once than in the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks combined.

I spoke to my colleague Rebecca F. Elliott, who covers energy. She told me that much of that is because of the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane along Iran’s southern coastline that handles about 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies and substantial amounts of natural gas.

This traffic has been all but halted during the war. As a result, oil and gas prices have shot up, and countries thousands of kilometers away are finding themselves running down their energy reserves.

Reopening the strait is its own very intractable problem. But we’re now in a stage of the war where getting exports flowing again is no longer just about getting tankers moving.

Both sides have targeted energy infrastructure. Iran depends on energy revenues to keep its government running. The U.S. desperately wants to bring down oil prices, which are a politically sensitive topic at home.

Dozens of oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites have been damaged in nine countries, a New York Times analysis found.

A case in point: After Israel attacked the Iranian part of a giant offshore natural gas field that Iran shares with Qatar, sending gas prices soaring, Iran attacked Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, home to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility.

Ras Laffan accounts for roughly a fifth of the global supply of liquefied natural gas. Iran damaged about 17 percent of it, Rebecca said. Operators of other energy facilities have been reluctant to disclose how much damage they’ve taken.

If the strait reopened tomorrow, and shipping companies could be persuaded that the journey was safe, it would still take weeks or months for energy flows to approach pre-war levels, Rebecca said.

Repairing the energy infrastructure itself? That could take years.

What could come next

It could get worse before it gets better.

“We’re already seeing one of the worst-case scenarios for global energy markets play out in real time,” Rebecca said. “The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the more damage the energy infrastructure sustains, the worse it will get.”

And there is plenty of potential for both sides to escalate further, she said.

Trump has threatened to target Iranian power plants. Iran could hit Ras Laffan again or strike major oil refineries that have so far been left untouched.

For the moment, all this is playing out in the form of a growing list of daily hardships around the world. But there are signs that things could spiral. In the Philippines, a coalition of transportation workers has called for mass protests later this week. There have already been protests in Thailand. Many of the countries most affected have limited ability to cushion their citizens from the worst of the shock. Should this go on, the political consequences could grow, even for governments with no capacity to influence how the fighting unfolds thousands of kilometers away.

As the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., said this month: “We are victims of a war that is not of our choosing.”

Other developments:

The Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is pushing Trump to continue the war against Iran, according to people briefed by U.S. officials on their recent conversations.
Trump said that negotiations to end the war were still taking place and that the Iranians would like “to make a deal.” Follow our live updates.
Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, as its new national security chief.
Israel’s military plans to expand the territory under its control in southern Lebanon.
My colleague David Sanger looked at the state of play after Trump threatened to attack Iran’s power stations if its leaders fail to open the Strait of Hormuz. Watch the video below.

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