Another day, another head-swiveling presidential social media post.
First, President Trump took to Truth Social over the weekend to threaten strikes on Iran’s power plants if the country did not open the Strait of Hormuz. Then, he used social media again yesterday to postpone the strikes, saying that “very good” talks are underway to end the war. Iranian state media, for its part, said he was “backing down” after threats of retaliation.
Today, I’m writing about the confusing case of Trump’s shifting ultimatums and why they don’t necessarily signal an easy end to the war.
The confusing case of Trump’s “very strong talks” with Iran
If you take Donald Trump at his word, the United States has made big progress in talks with Iran over the past two days.
On Saturday evening, Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane that carries 20 percent of the world’s oil, or face the destruction of civilian power plants. Then yesterday morning, he announced that the deadline had been extended to Friday thanks to “very good and productive” talks on a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities.”
The price of oil promptly fell 10 percent and stock markets rallied. It didn’t take long, however, for doubts to emerge about whether these talks had played out the way Trump suggested, or if they’d even happened at all.
On the Iranian side, officials denied there’d been any discussions. Trump insisted that there were “very strong talks,” that they’d continue on Monday by phone, and that his team was dealing with a “top person” in Iran, whom he wouldn’t name.
It was a confusing day, and we still don’t know what’s really going on behind the scenes. But you don’t have to know what happened in these talks — or if they happened — to appreciate the main thing that Trump accomplished with his post yesterday morning.
As David Sanger, our national security correspondent, put it: “The president had to get out of the box he himself constructed.”
Saving face and buying time
Above all, the announcement buys Trump time.
When he gave the Iranians an ultimatum over the weekend, he effectively set himself a deadline to make a seriously escalatory move: bombing Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure.
It would probably have resulted in exactly the kind of retaliation that Trump was trying to prevent last week when he urged Israel not to attack Iranian oil and gas production.
Tehran had responded to Trump’s weekend threats with defiance, warning that the strait would be “completely closed” if its energy infrastructure were attacked, and that it would target energy facilities, along with desalination plants, in countries that host American troops. All that would risk escalating the already very painful oil shock even further.
But, as David put it, “backing down from the ultimatum would have looked weak.”
By postponing, Trump saves face and gains himself an extra few days “for negotiations if they do end up happening — or for 4,500 marines to arrive in the Gulf to give him more options,” David said.
It also has the convenient effect of giving markets a boost — something Trump has developed a reputation for doing. U.S. stock markets opened yesterday with the S&P 500 up more than 1 percent and on course for its biggest rise since the start of the Iran war in late February.
Still looking for an off-ramp
Trump has a lot of reasons to want to end the war. It has become a political liability at home. It’s unpopular, and not just because it has raised prices at the pump. It’s straining his coalition: influential MAGA figures have been arguing that America is fighting at Israel’s behest.
But ending it may be easier said than done. The two sides might very well be talking. The problem, as David pointed out, is that even if they are, all of the factors that have made it so challenging for the U.S. to extract itself from this war to date are still in place.
The U.S. faces an urgent problem with the Strait of Hormuz — it needs to get oil flowing again. But any agreement to end the war that didn’t deal with Iran’s enriched uranium or its nuclear program, or that left the current regime in place, which looks very similar to Iran’s old government, would be difficult to sell as a victory.
Israel, the U.S.’s ally, which would find it particularly hard to live with an Islamic republic that remains intact, can still launch missiles toward Tel Aviv and has more incentive than ever to race for a nuclear weapon. As if to make that point, shortly after Trump’s post about the talks, the Israeli military said it had conducted a new wave of strikes on Tehran.
Iran, for its part, shows few signs of making concessions. As my colleague Farnaz Fassihi, who has reported deeply on Iran, put it to me recently, the bar for declaring victory for Iran is much lower. The U.S. and Israel have a set of ambitious objectives they’re trying to achieve; all the Iranian government has to do is survive.
Other developments in the war:
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Pentagon officials are weighing a possible deployment of airborne troops to support U.S. military operations in Iran.
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Israel’s missile defense system is under scrutiny after it failed to intercept two Iranian missiles that landed hours apart in towns near a heavily guarded nuclear site.
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The energy crisis will not be resolved quickly even if the war ends, the leader of the International Energy Agency said.
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China lowered a planned increase of gas prices to defray costs for its more than 300 million drivers.
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These charts show which countries are most dependent on Persian Gulf oil and gas.
Top of The World
The most clicked link in your newsletter yesterday was for this graphic illustrating the many countries being pulled into the war in Iran.
MORE TOP NEWS
How will the Danish leader who took on Trump fare in elections?
Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s prime minister, is running for a third term in an election today.
Many voters credit her with keeping the kingdom intact by standing up to Trump’s threats to annex Greenland. Now, Trump seems to have moved on.
But some Danes are itching for change. The most likely outcome, many political analysts believe, is a reshuffled coalition government with her at the head.
OTHER NEWS
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A runway collision at LaGuardia Airport in New York killed two people, injured dozens more and temporarily shut down one of the busiest airports in the region.
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Italian voters rejected a judicial overhaul backed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, dealing the first major jolt to her authority since her election in 2022.
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The war in Iran has forced at least 70,000 Afghan workers and students to go back home to a nation embroiled in a conflict with Pakistan.
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Taiwan’s legislature is set to discuss proposals to raise military spending, but divisions in its main opposition party may hinder progress.
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The police in London are investigating an arson attack on four ambulances belonging to a Jewish volunteer service.
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Lionel Jospin, a former socialist prime minister of France whose government inaugurated the 35-hour workweek and replaced the franc with the euro, died at the age of 88.
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Bill Cosby was ordered to pay $19 million after a civil jury in California found that he sexually assaulted a waitress in 1972.
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The low turnout at the BTS comeback concert in Seoul hit local businesses hard.
SPORTS
Hockey: Alex Ovechkin became the second player to ever make 1,000 career NHL goals across regular-season and postseason play.
Tennis: Sebastian Korda took down Carlos Alcaraz, the world No. 1, in a stunning upset at the Miami Open.
Football: With four defeats in a row and the loss of a head coach, are Chelsea edging toward a crisis?
SNACK OF THE DAY
Jacket potatoes
The British classic is in demand again, and social media seems to be the reason. Some vendors with millions of TikTok followers are modernizing the dish, which is basically a baked potato, adding flavored butter, crispy onions and toppings such as shaved doner kebab. At one spot in northwest England, the wait for a spud can run up to six hours.
MORNING READ
An often misunderstood and overlooked health problem is getting some attention in Africa. Some 54 million people on the continent are estimated to have diabetes, but medical resources have traditionally been focused on infectious diseases like malaria.
Now, steps are being taken to address diabetes, which can cause blindness, amputations and death. The push comes from a growing recognition that diabetes has a different, insidious form in Africa known as Type 5, which is linked to malnutrition. Read more about how Africa is tackling the problem.
AROUND THE WORLD
A heroine of ancient Greece with things on her mind … in New York
In the first few months of the year, four different New York City theaters are staging adaptations of the Sophocles tragedy “Antigone.” It’s a sign, our theater critic Helen Shaw writes, that its 2,500-year-old heroine is finding relevance.
In the original tale, Antigone risks her life to bury her brother, defying an explicit order from their uncle, Creon, the king of Thebes. Her act makes her one of literature’s earliest “bad girls,” a conscientious objector who refuses to conform or obey. Ride along with Shaw on an “Antigone crawl” across Manhattan to hear why the Greek princess’s story suits this political moment.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Watch: “Project Hail Mary,” out in theaters, is a science-fiction movie about a heavy subject: the end of the world.
Trim: Draw some inspiration from the bobs, bangs and buzz cuts on the runways during fashion month.
Admire: The artist Ida Ekblad has transformed a concrete villa in Oslo into an experimental space. Take a look.
RECIPE
In this simple and flavorful sheet-pan meal, barramundi (or another firm, white fish) is rubbed with a marinade made with berbere, a traditional Ethiopian and Eritrean spice mix with fenugreek and chile at its core.
WHERE IS THIS?
Where is this island getaway?
TIME TO PLAY
Here are today’s Spelling Bee, Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku. Find all our games here.
You’re done for today. See you tomorrow! — Katrin
We welcome your feedback. Send us your suggestions at [email protected].
Katrin Bennhold is the host of The World, the flagship global newsletter of The New York Times.
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