Cuba “can’t fix” its failing, centralized economy and attempts at reforms so far have been “not dramatic enough,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday, as President Donald Trump promised, “We’ll be doing something with Cuba very soon.”
The remarks were the latest uptick in the Trump’s pressure campaign on Havana, whose communist leaders, the president has said, will be the next to fall after Iran and Venezuela.
The administration appears to be banking on Cuba’s economic collapse and popular discontent rather than military intervention in the face of a decades-long U.S. economic embargo strengthened by new sanctions and blocked oil imports.
Cubans survived for years on outside support, first from the former Soviet Union and in recent years from Venezuela, Rubio said: “They don’t get subsidies any more, so they’re in a lot of trouble. And the people in charge — they don’t know how to fix it. So they have to get new people in charge.” He and Trump spoke during an Oval Office visit by the prime minister of Ireland.
On Monday, the Cuban government said that it would open up its economy to foreign private investment, including to expatriates living abroad, and allow foreign banks and private accounts to operate. The statement by Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, Cuba’s deputy prime minister and economic czar, coincided with an island-wide blackout as fuel reserves dwindled.
Some Cuban officials argue that foreign investments have been allowed for years. But previous reforms have never been fully implemented as the government has retained control of the economy while arguing that deprivations are largely due to U.S. sanctions.
On Friday, President Manuel Díaz-Canel said Cuba had received no energy imports for the past three months. In a speech to government and Communist Party leaders and in a subsequent news conference, he said that the government was in the first phase of talks with the United Statesto resolve their differences.
Trump has also acknowledged talks, headed by Rubio, but neither government has provided details. On Friday, Trump told reporters that “maybe we’ll have a friendly takeover of Cuba.”
In addition to blocking oil imports, the administration has canceled bilateral exchanges over migration and other mutual concerns, although Cuba has continued to accept deportation flights from the United States. It has also canceled a parole program for Cuban migrants in the U.S. and paused all immigration applications for Cubans.
Amid a deepening economic bite, there have been reports of growing popular discontent and street demonstrations, including a protest at the Communist Party headquarters in the central city of Moron that turned violent. So far, however, those actions pale in comparison to nationwide economic and political protests in June 2021 that led to mass arrests.
As the administration tries to gauge conditions on the ground, diplomats with the U.S. Embassy in Havana have been “cruising the capital’s streets in electric vehicles” to assess daily life, according to a State Department cable sent by the embassy Monday and reviewed by The Washington Post.
The cable reported wide disparities in the impact of the economic situation, adding that areas in the capital where “regime elites” and military officers live were clean and ordered, but in other areas basic services are lagging and the burning of piled-up trash has blanketed Havana with “pungent smoke.” Ordinary Cubans are forced to rely on their ingenuity, the cable said, noting that “severe gasoline and diesel shortages hinder municipal operations and supply chains as residents adapt by turning to mostly electric-powered mobility,” largely provided by China.
“Small and medium enterprises keep shelves partially stocked and prices relatively stable for now,” the embassy reported, “but business owners expect pressures to build as imports navigate through increasingly backed-up ports as lack of fuel prevents deliveries. The situation is further exacerbated by the regime’s convoluted and ineffective economic policies as well as incoherent restrictions on basic services.”
The embassy also said that there were “daily reports” of anti-Communist graffiti being written next to “Viva Trump” slogans, despite the official Cuban government line that the U.S. embargo was to blame for the economic situation.”
The protest in Moron, it said, where demonstrators threw furniture from the party headquarters into the street and set it on fire, was the first time during 67 years of communist rule that a party building had been “attacked.” It noted social media reports that one protester was shot and wounded by security forces.
Díaz Canel said in a social media post that the “discomfort” Cubans were feeling because of “prolonged power outages caused by the U.S. energy blockade” were understandable, and “complaints and demands, provided they are expressed with civility and respect for public order, are legitimate. What will never be understandable, justified, or acceptable is violence and vandalism that threatens public peace and the security of our institutions.”
Many of the U.S. sanctions on Cuba, including Trump’s oil blockade, have been imposed over the years by executive order, but Rubio noted Monday that the original embargo, imposed by President John F. Kennedy in 1962, could only be lifted by Congress. Lawmakers in 1996 passed the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, which codified the embargo and said that it could only be terminated with the restoration of a democratic government in Cuba.
“The embargo is tied to political change on the island,” Rubio said Tuesday.
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