Donald Trump’s impetuous decision to launch a war on Iran, despite being warned against it, has handed Vladimir Putin an unexpected windfall, as the U.S. Treasury’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian seaborne oil shipments has effectively relieved the economic stranglehold that was finally beginning to cripple Moscow’s war machine.
The 30-day license announced this week was designed to control skyrocketing oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Israeli conflict. Instead, it has become a lifeline for Russia’s teetering economy—exactly when sanctions were inflicting maximum damage, reports the Washington Post.
Moscow is openly celebrating the reversal. Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s special economic envoy, crowed on Telegram: “The U.S. has practically admitted the obvious. The global energy market cannot remain stable without Russian oil.” He suggested further sanctions relief is “inevitable,” signaling Russian expectations for continued relief.
Western analysts are alarmed at the strategic gift to Putin. Janis Kluge, an economist at Germany’s Institute for International and Security Affairs, warned that Russian oil “will find a way to the market now without any discount because there is no reason now to give a discount.”
Borys Dodonov, head of the Center for Energy and Climate Studies at the Kyiv School of Economics, was blunt about who benefits: “Russia was in trouble in January and especially in February. Now Russia will have enough money to balance its budget and even start to accumulate some money in its national wealth fund. In the U.S. conflict with Iran, Putin is the biggest winner.”
The reversal threatens to fracture Western unity on sanctions. Kluge warned: “We know that G-7 cooperation is very fragile and it was very complicated to get these sanctions in place. Now it is unclear if the same level of cooperation can continue later on or as the Russians are hoping this will lead to more damage to the sanctions regime in the future. I’m just not convinced this waiver will run out in April as it is planned.”
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