“It is worse than a crime; it is a blunder.” Thus was the response of a prominent French politician to the news that Napoleon had executed an enemy duke in 1804.
An adage of 19th-century power politics, it has regained painful relevance today. Neither the United States nor Israel can proffer a coherent plan for their war on Iran. Something like the Syrian scenario is the best planners can come up with: disintegration of the polity from the skies, without the presence of foreign troops, domestic propaganda campaigns or long-term security planning. Old-style regime change is out. Regime wrecking, at great global cost, is all that is on offer.
The apothegm easily applies to Europe’s leaders, too. Despite being blindsided by the Israeli-American operation in Iran, they have largely declared support for it — if somewhat cagily — and lent military assistance in the form of bases, warships and planes. More structurally, Europeans have foundered in letting themselves be so dependent on the whims of an America commanded by a rogue president. Almost by default, they have colluded in the conditions of their own endangerment.
The consequences are potentially calamitous. Energy prices are already rising precipitously, an effect of a snarled-up Strait of Hormuz, as leaders face pressure to contribute more to President Trump’s blitzkrieg. Today the war risks spreading to Europe; soon it could bring a refugee crisis as people flee a ravaged Middle East. Yet to counteract such dangers, and the dependencies underpinning them, most European leaders are doing precious little.
Instead, they have opted for passive bystandership or active coalescence. After initially refusing, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain allowed the United States to use British bases and Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany backed the effort “to get rid of this terrible terrorist regime.” President Emmanuel Macron of France has been more circumspect in words but clearer in action, deploying several warships to the region. Not to be outdone, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy offered the country’s bases to America and dispatched air defense weapons to the Persian Gulf.
What explains such complaisance? Energy is one potential answer. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 effectively cut off gas supplies to the continent, Europe was forced to find alternative sources of energy. It partly turned to liquefied natural gas, much of it imported from America. (A smaller amount came from Qatar, now stanched by the war.) One dependence on a politically unreliable provider has been replaced with another. In their subordinate state, European politicians may prefer to toe the White House line rather than cross it.
Security is another candidate. Europe has significantly increased military spending and is now the dominant backer of the Ukrainian war effort. But pending the rollout of a truly domestic military industry, Europeans remain dependent on American supplies and intelligence to keep further Russian incursions at bay. Antagonizing the Trump administration could leave them at Moscow’s mercy — a particular worry for the continent’s eastern flank. It hardly helps that Mr. Trump recently threatened to invade Greenland.
Along with these material constraints, there are those imposed by ideology. The current crop of European leaders grew up in a world underpinned by total American power and remains invested in it as the linchpin of any global order. Genuflection to the United States is a natural reflex for a generation that has never been taught to think or rule on its feet. The sycophancy of Mark Rutte — now the NATO secretary general, formerly the Dutch prime minister — presents an extreme case of a general affliction.
Alternatives to this vassalage exist. Indeed, Spain offers clues as to what a more independent course would look like. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez — a lonely critic of the military spending target adopted last year by European governments at Mr. Trump’s behest — refused to offer up Spanish bases for American use. He is no pacifist: Full-throated in his support for Ukraine, he has called for the consolidation of a European army, which would join the continent’s populous but fragmented armies into a cohesive whole.
On the energy front, Mr. Sánchez is pursuing an ambitious decarbonization push. Alongside slowing climate change, this would also reduce dependence on oil and gas imports. To that end, he has sought partnership with China — against European consensus — to facilitate cooperation on green projects. The component parts of his program should prove complementary: Decarbonization aids energy independence, which in turn relieves American military pressure. Needless to say, it also puts Europe on sounder economic footing.
That recipe would require a break with policy orthodoxy. To date, many European politicians have pitted greening efforts against attempts to revive the continent’s economy. For such revitalization, the preferred approach tends to be cuts in wages and social spending, alongside remilitarization. But large-scale public investment in green technology could kill two birds with one stone, providing a major economic jolt and reducing America’s leverage over Europe.
Despite some scattered statements of support, few of the continent’s leaders have joined Mr. Sánchez’s broader bid for autonomy. Compliance, after all, is more instinctual than declarations of independence for a generation that grew up in the age of American unipolarity. Crimes certainly abound in the year 2026. Yet, as Napoleon’s statesman knew, one can commit only so many blunders before one stumbles to defeat.
Anton Jäger is a contributing Opinion writer. He is a lecturer in politics at Oxford University and the author of “Hyperpolitics: Extreme Politicization Without Political Consequences.”
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