In the weeks before U.S. and Israeli forces began their assault on Iran, President Trump had a message for Iranians protesting their government: “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” Then, as he announced the opening strikes on Feb. 28, he called on the Iranian people to rise up.
“When we are finished, take over your government,” Mr. Trump said. “It will be yours to take.”
But on Friday, Mr. Trump appeared to acknowledge that his command was easier said than done.
In a radio interview with Fox News host Brian Kilmeade, Mr. Trump said the Basij, a plainclothes militia that is affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, would probably kill protesters if they took to the streets.
“You just mentioned to me a group of people that go around with machine guns and shoot them down, and they say, ‘Anybody protests, we’re going to kill you in the streets.’ So I really think that’s a big hurdle to climb for people that don’t have weapons,” Mr. Trump said.
“I think it’s a very big hurdle,” he continued. “So that’ll happen, but it probably will be, maybe not immediately. Who’s going to do that? They literally have people in the streets with machine guns, machine gunning people down if they want to protest. OK?”
Mr. Trump’s comments were a startling change from his early rhetoric, when he predicted a swift victory and a bright future for the people of Iran, courtesy of the United States.
Since then, the president has offered inconsistent visions of how a new government could take shape after the targeted killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled the country for more than three decades until an airstrike killed him on the opening day of the war.
In a brief interview with The New York Times on Sunday, Mr. Trump said he hoped Iran’s elite military forces — including hardened officers of the I.R.G.C. — would simply turn over their weapons to the Iranian populace.
In the radio interview that aired Friday, two weeks into the war, Mr. Trump seemed to understand that the regime is more entrenched and less likely to fall to street protesters than he previously said.
“These are these are bad people. They go out shooting protesters. You’re a protester. They shoot you right through the head,” he said.
He said both he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel would understand the reluctance to rise up.
The Basij, estimated to number at about one million, have played a central role in repressing past protests and aided the brutal crackdown on the nationwide demonstrations that began in January and killed thousands.
Mr. Trump said there is “virtually no military left” in Iran.
During a news conference on Thursday, Mr. Netanyahu also cast doubt on whether the Iranian people could force the government to collapse.
“We are creating the optimal conditions for toppling the regime,” he said, “but I won’t deny that I can’t tell you with all certainty that the people of Iran will topple the regime — a regime is toppled from the inside.”
Luke Broadwater covers the White House for The Times.
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