In all the years I’ve spent predicting the Oscars, I can hardly remember a season that felt so competitive until the very last minute.
Several major categories, including most of the acting races, still feel like tossups heading into the Oscars on Sunday. Adding to the uncertainty is the academy’s new initiative to make sure voters actually watch all the nominated contenders, which could have real implications in some of the tight contests.
This year, Oscar ballots were synced to the academy’s screening app, with entire categories grayed out until a voter was logged as having finished every nominee in that race. While members could check boxes to attest they had viewed the other contenders, many people I spoke with admitted that those tweaks had effectively guilted them into watching more movies.
Does that benefit a best-actor contender like Ethan Hawke, whose small indie “Blue Moon” was sampled more than it would have been otherwise? Or will the effect be felt more in specialized categories like documentary feature, which busy voters may have skipped en masse, leaving the ultimate decision to the die-hards who watch everything?
With all those thoughts swimming in my mind, here are my tentatively offered projections in each category.
Best Picture
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
✓ “One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Widely considered one of the greatest directors of his generation, Paul Thomas Anderson has received 14 Oscar nominations (including three this year), though he has never won. This year, voters finally appear ready to welcome the auteur into their canon.
Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” has taken the top prize at nearly every show this season, including the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and the directors and producers guild ceremonies. The latter group is an especially strong predictor of best-picture success, since the Producers Guild uses the same preferential ballot as the Oscars and shares significant member overlap with the academy.
Still, you can’t rule out a late surge from “Sinners,” Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama. It has earned fresh momentum since breaking the record for the most Oscar nominations, and it performed strongly at the Actor Awards, winning the ensemble prize and best actor for Michael B. Jordan. The energy was so electric that it recalled the night “Parasite” won the same ensemble award on its way to toppling the Producers Guild winner “1917” at the Oscars.
But those upsets tend to occur when the season-long front-runner is respected rather than loved. I don’t think that’s the case with “One Battle After Another”: Many voters adore this movie and that should be enough to safeguard its big win.
Best Director
✓ Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
If you’re voting for “One Battle” in picture, you’re definitely voting for Anderson in director. What has surprised me is that a sizable chunk of “Sinners” voters I spoke to are opting for Anderson in the directing category, too. Maybe it’s just his moment.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
✓ Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
At the beginning of the season, I speculated that this Oscar was Chalamet’s to lose. Has he? The 30-year-old was recently defeated at the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards, revealing some resistance from industry voters. Still, I wonder if the academy’s longtime bias against handsome young A-listers in this category will also hinder the 39-year-old Jordan, who won with the friendlier Screen Actors Guild. If voters would rather reward a veteran, there are almost too many options: Do they choose DiCaprio, who led the likely best-picture winner? What about Hawke or Moura, who are well-liked and seemingly everywhere? Any of these five men can win, though I’m betting on Jordan, who is peaking at the right time.
Best Actress
✓ Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
With so many acting races giving me agita, thank goodness for Buckley, who has thoroughly swept this season. (Not even a late-arriving bomb in “The Bride!” could slow her momentum.)
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
✓ Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value”
Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, should prevail thanks to his transformative performance and back-to-back victories at the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards. Voters who noticed that Penn was a no-show at those ceremonies may shift their support to contenders who seem to want it more, like Skarsgard or Lindo. Still, I think Penn is comfortably ahead in this category.
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
✓ Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
This is a tight three-way race. Taylor had a well-watched victory speech at the Globes but managed no big awards since. Mosaku earned a BAFTA from her fellow Brits, though during a big night for “Sinners” at the Actor Awards, she lost to Madigan, 75, who has a compelling comeback narrative. I’d feel more confident predicting Madigan if “Weapons” had shown more strength in other categories, but after speaking to so many Oscar voters who are rooting for her, I think she can pull it off.
Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sentimental Value”
✓ “Sinners”
The path to best picture almost always involves a screenplay win. Whether Coogler’s film takes the night’s final prize, the writer-director is guaranteed to earn an Oscar in this category.
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
✓ “One Battle After Another”
“Train Dreams”
In 1998, Anderson received his first Oscar nomination for writing “Boogie Nights.” Nearly every film he’s made since has earned a screenplay nomination (and the few that didn’t, like “Phantom Thread,” arguably should have). Triumphing in this category will give him a long-overdue win.
Casting
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
✓ “Sinners”
“The Secret Agent”
Which film will win the inaugural casting Oscar? Unless voters are enchanted with the array of distinctive Brazilian faces in “The Secret Agent,” this award will probably go to one of the two strongest best-picture contenders. “Sinners” stands out for putting together a supersize ensemble that’s easy to keep track of.
Original Song
“Dear Me” (“Diane Warren: Relentless”)
✓ “Golden” (“KPop Demon Hunters”)
“I Lied to You” (“Sinners”)
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” (“Viva Verdi!”)
“Train Dreams” (“Train Dreams”)
Is it gonna be, gonna be “Golden”? The anthemic earworm from “KPop Demon Hunters” ought to win this in a walk.
Original Score
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
✓ “Sinners”
“One Battle After Another” has the most distinctive themes, but it’s hard to beat the musical soundscape of “Sinners.”
Cinematography
“Frankenstein”
“Marty Supreme”
✓ “One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
There’s a lot of pretty picture-making in this category, from the stunning “Train Dreams” to the deliciously dark “Sinners.” If the latter wins, Autumn Durald Arkapaw would become the first woman to ever earn the cinematography Oscar. But “One Battle After Another” has swept industry awards in this category and offers competition as steep as the rolling hills from the film’s bravura final chase.
Production Design
✓ “Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
He’s known as a master of horror, but nothing seems to terrify the director Guillermo del Toro more than the specter of a small set. His production design has gotten so lavish lately that every set is the size of a football field, so if voters are inclined to reward the most production design, “Frankenstein” wins on acreage alone.
Costume Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
✓ “Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sinners”
“Frankenstein” puts Mia Goth in some pretty ostentatious outfits, so unless two-time winner Ruth E. Carter makes it a three-peat for her work in “Sinners,” all those gothic dresses ought to win the day.
Makeup and Hairstyling
✓ “Frankenstein”
“Kokuho”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine”
“The Ugly Stepsister”
Here’s the third category where “Frankenstein” can be considered the front-runner, though if “Sinners” manages an upset in any of these races, take that as the sign of a significant surge to come.
Editing
“F1”
“Marty Supreme”
✓ “One Battle After Another”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
Its incredibly propulsive prologue should be enough to earn “One Battle After Another” this win, but it helps that the rest of this nearly three-hour film passes in the blink of an eye.
Sound
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“One Battle After Another”
✓ “Sinners”
“Sirat”
The cars do indeed go vroom in “F1,” which has led the season in sound awards so far. But there’s greater passion for “Sinners,” and I think that film’s sound mixing can engineer an upset.
Visual Effects
✓ “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Jurassic World Rebirth”
“The Lost Bus”
“Sinners”
The last two “Avatar” films won this Oscar, and though voters appear to be fatigued with James Cameron’s sci-fi franchise, the category isn’t exactly filled with eye-popping alternatives. Barring a “Sinners” sweep, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” feels like a safe bet.
International Feature
“The Secret Agent,” Brazil
“It Was Just an Accident,” France
✓ “Sentimental Value,” Norway
“Sirat,” Spain
“The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Tunisia
Though “The Secret Agent” peaked at the right time, its late-season surge probably isn’t enough to unseat “Sentimental Value,” which earned more Oscar nominations across the board.
Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution”
“Come See Me in the Good Light”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
✓ “The Perfect Neighbor”
Between you and me, this category has confounded me almost as much as the best-actor race. The prison documentary “The Alabama Solution” gets high marks, though it’s not an easy watch. “Come See Me in the Good Light” and “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” may split the sad-but-inspirational vote. That leaves me picking “The Perfect Neighbor,” though this film about a racially charged neighborhood killing missed out on some guild wins it was favored for.
Animated Feature
“Arco”
“Elio”
✓ “KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”
As the academy has diversified its ranks, voters have been increasingly willing to go highbrow and international in this category, as demonstrated by recent winners “Flow” and “The Boy and the Heron.” Still, without a strong overseas entry this year, “KPop Demon Hunters” should slay all contenders.
Animated Short
✓ “Butterfly”
“Forevergreen”
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
“Retirement Plan”
“The Three Sisters”
Will this Oscar go to the accessible heart-warmer about aging (“Retirement Plan”) or the avant-garde tear-jerker about the Holocaust (“Butterfly”)? It’s a tossup, but I’m picking “Butterfly.”
Documentary Short
✓ “All the Empty Rooms”
“Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
“Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
“The Devil Is Busy”
“Perfectly a Strangeness”
In this perennially wrenching category, the front-runner is “All the Empty Rooms,” a devastating look at the bedrooms left behind by children killed in school shootings.
Live-Action Short
“Butcher’s Stain”
“A Friend of Dorothy”
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
“The Singers”
✓ “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Over the years, I’ve noticed that short-film voters gravitate to French romance and “Black Mirror”-type allegories. Expect a win, then, for the en français allegory “Two People Exchanging Saliva,” which depicts a dystopian world in which chic Parisians aren’t allowed to kiss. C’est incroyable!
Kyle Buchanan is a pop culture reporter and also serves as The Projectionist, the awards season columnist for The Times.
The post Oscars 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win Best Picture, Actor and Actress? appeared first on New York Times.
