Early voting is underway for Virginia’s April 21 referendum to gerrymander the state in Democrats’ favor ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The Trump White House set off this race to the bottom last year by urging Texas Republicans to adopt a rare mid-decade gerrymander, so Virginia Democrats can rationalize to themselves that they’re merely responding to GOP aggression. Even in this era of tit-for-tat politics, however, Democratic politicians are presenting the proposed amendment to voters in the most brazenly dishonest way imaginable.
The ballot asks voters the following: Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census? (Emphasis added.)
Virginia’s 11 congressional seats, whose current boundaries were drawn by an independent commission, are held by six Democrats and five Republicans. That reflects the state’s blue-leaning but divided political character. If the referendum passes, the Democratic-controlled General Assembly has approved a map designed to give their party a 10 to 1 advantage by cramming Republicans into a vast deep-red district and slicing up the vote-rich Northern Virginia suburbs like a pizza.
Who opposes “fairness” in elections? Apparently it depends on how it’s defined. Should the outcome of the commonwealth’s elections reflect the preferences of its voters? How passé. In Richmond, apparently “fairness” means maximizing partisan advantage for Democrats and drawing incumbents out of their seats.
Understandably, Democrats want to gain more seats from mid-decade redistricting than Republicans can. But at least California Democrats were candid when they sought approval for their power grab: That state’s referendum asked for permission to use a new map in response to Texas’s gerrymander. It didn’t ask if they wanted to “restore fairness.”
The California referendum easily passed in November with 64 percent support. Are Virginia Democrats worried that independent voters would resist gerrymandering if they presented the question, well, fairly?
Meanwhile, the Texas gerrymander that triggered all this looks increasingly like it could be a political dud. It was widely publicized as a plan to grab five additional GOP seats in the Lone Star State’s 38-member congressional delegation, but that was based on rosy Republican projections about their gains with Latino voters. There are signs that Hispanics have shifted back toward Democrats since the 2024 election. A recent Brookings Institution analysis suggests the Texas gerrymander might yield just two pickups for the GOP.
It’s still too early to tally who will come out ahead in the redistricting race. Florida Republicans may further gerrymander their state next month during a special session. Even after all the tilting of the playing fields, the fundamentals strongly favor Democrats. Either way, the process hasn’t ennobled either party.
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