Since the first missiles of the U.S.-Israeli campaign began striking Iran, Russian state media and political pundits have been mulling over a question: Do negotiations with the United States always end with missiles hitting the capital?
Minus the question mark, that was the title of a recent op-ed in the pro-Kremlin newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets, which argued that President Donald Trump, while insisting on getting a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, is “devouring” Russian allies one by one and “lulling us to sleep with fairy tales about unprecedented prospects for Russian-American cooperation.”
“Perhaps it is time to wake up?” wrote the op-ed columnist, Dmitry Popov.
Trump’s decision to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while Iran was in active negotiations with the president’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner has reinforced a growing sense among hard-liners in Moscow that diplomacy is fragile — perhaps even pointless — in a world in which the United States is willing to use military force to achieve its goals.
The attack on Iran has also reinforced the conviction among proponents of Russia’s invasion that the broader conflict over Ukraine will be settled only on the battlefield and that Russian President Vladimir Putin should focus on the fighting. They view the possibility of an independent, Western-oriented Ukraine on their border as the spearhead in a long-running Western effort to encircle and eventual destroy Russia.
Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent Russian foreign policy analyst who advises the Kremlin and Russian diplomats, told a Russian radio station that the U.S.-Israeli campaign in Iran “marks a transition to a different type of international relations” where “at any moment, you can move from being a person sitting across the table to becoming a victim.”
Lukyanov added, “How can negotiations even be conducted in such a situation, if you know that at any moment the other side may shift to a direct personal attack against you?
Russia, like Iran, has sent officials to meet Witkoff and Kushner in Geneva in recent weeks. And Russia, like Iran, knows that it is viewed as a threat by the United States and NATO allies.
With the White House now focused on Iran, it is unclear when the American, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators will resume their talks. A new round had been expected in Turkey this week but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was delayed at the behest of Washington.
“We were ready to go to Turkey. It was the American side that postponed it, saying, ‘Let’s do it next week.’ That’s the information we have today,” Zelensky told Ukrainian media on Tuesday.
Trump spoke with Putin by phone on Monday, marking their first conversation this year as Russian officials sense a chance to benefit from the fighting in the Middle East, especially a rise in oil prices and the possibility that Trump would suspend or end sanctions on Russian oil.
During the phone call, Russia denied sharing intelligence with Iran, Witkoff said in an interview Tuesday on CNBC. The Washington Post has reported that Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East. In defending against Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has relied heavily on the United States and NATO allies for targeting help.
“Yesterday on the call with the president, the Russians said that they have not been sharing,” Witkoff said. “We can take them at their word. But they did say that. And yesterday morning, independently, Jared and I had a call with Ushakov who reiterated the same,” he added, referring to Kushner and to Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov.
Proxy battles aside, it is unclear how much faith is left in the negotiations over Ukraine — especially in Moscow.
The toppling of two leaders long allied with Putin — Khamenei in Iran and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela — has left serious doubts in Moscow that the United States can be trusted in negotiations about Ukraine.
“It is absolutely clear that these actions are creating an unpleasant background for further U.S.-Russian talks,” said a Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly about the Russian government. “It is unclear how we are supposed to have discussions on the Ukraine agenda if the U.S. allows itself such actions in relation to a Russian partner — this undermines trust and to some degree discredits the U.S. as a mediator.”
Vladimir Pastukhov, a Russian political scientist and honorary professor of the University College London, said the Iran war would probably reinforce Putin’s belief that he was right to invade.
“In fact, the entire logic behind the West’s crisis resolution as observed from the Kremlin — from Belgrade in 1999 to Tehran in 2026 — convinces Moscow that those who strike last are trampled first,” Pastukhov said. “So they strike where they can reach, and in the way they know how. It will be difficult to convince Putin now that he was wrong about anything. He points to Tehran to his doubting allies and says, ‘We would have been in their place.’”
The Kremlin still treads carefully when it comes to criticizing Trump, aware of the tightrope it must walk as it remains locked in negotiations with Washington, still hoping to achieve a deal on its maximalist terms or at least to secure a reduction of U.S. support for Kyiv that would make it easier for Moscow to accomplish its military goals.
Many Western analysts believe Putin has remained intent on a military victory all along.
In communications with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Putin’s most pointed commentary was a reference to “Israeli-American aggression against Iran,” according to a Kremlin readout. Putin called for “rapid de-escalation of the conflict and its resolution by political means” but stopped short of directly criticizing Trump.
“As miffed as Putin might be personally, he’s not going to throw his relationship with Trump under the bus,” Sam Greene, director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London, said on X. “For one thing, it won’t bring Khamenei back. But more importantly, Trump is Putin’s greatest source of leverage over Europe. He’ll keep his eye on the ball.”
The chaotic spread of airstrikes across the Middle East also presents Moscow with some potential benefits in its fight against Ukraine, officials and analysts said.
The prospect of short-term gains from a sharp spike in oil prices and the United States being dragged into a widening regional war could, for now, outweigh the blow of Khameini’s death. Western weapons potentially destined for Ukraine also could be diverted to the Middle East.
The escalating violence in the Middle East has already sent Ukrainian officials scrambling to ensure that vital supplies of Western weapons and air defense system will not be impacted.
Ukraine has had its own reasons to distrust the Trump administration, which at times has adopted narratives mirroring Moscow’s and has appeared to pressure Ukraine to accept some of Russia’s demands.
The main obstacle at the heart of the talks is Moscow’s insistence that Ukraine surrender areas in the eastern Donetsk region that Russia has not been able to seize by force. Washington is pushing for an arrangement in which Ukraine gives up control and accepts a demilitarized zone there, Ukrainian officials say.
“There have been grounds for concerns in Ukraine … related to the U.S. ability to be an impartial mediator — even before recent events in Middle East,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv and a senior analyst at Come Back Alive, a Ukrainian nonprofit organization.
This has been the case since the beginning of Trump’s second term in office, Bielieskov said.
Russian demands, conveyed through Witkoff, were “used as a basis to squeeze concessions out of Ukraine,” and “rhetoric out of the Trump administration” aligned “more with the Russian reading of situation than with Ukrainian one,” he said, adding that Washington also pushes for “artificial deadlines to demonstrate progress in the negotiations.”
But despite “a lot of grounds for concern,” Bielieskov said Kyiv remains committed to the talks: “Ukraine has chosen a path of trying to modify U.S. demands while staying on speaking terms with the Trump team.”
Still, Ukrainian forces are continuing to fight to take back territory, which officials hope will make a difference at the negotiating table. In a recent interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believed Russia would bargain in good faith only when the cost of war becomes too high.
“Serious negotiations,” Zelensky told Italy’s Corriere della Sera newspaper, “will begin when his army starts shrinking.”
Catherine Belton contributed to this report.
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