This year’s Oscars really will be one battle after another.
And it’ll be one battle after another between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” as those two films face off in a record 11 different categories.
The numbers are ridiculous. “Sinners,” Ryan Coogler’s genre-bending rampage that looks at race relations through the lens of a vampire story, has a record-shattering 16 nominations; “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson’s wild look at revolutionary fervor over decades, has 13, only one shy of the previous high. Besides the 11 categories in which they’re both nominated, there’s one category in which only “One Battle” is nominated but not “Sinners,” and five in which “Sinners” is nominated but not “One Battle.”
And in the categories open to all narrative films, there’s only one category, Best Actress, in which neither film is nominated.
They’ll be facing off in picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, casting, cinematography, film editing, original score, production design and sound. That’s a record for head-to-head contests on one Oscar show, beating the 10 categories in which “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” competed in 2024. (For the record, “Oppenheimer” won in six of those categories, “Poor Things” won in three and “American Fiction” beat both of them in Best Adapted Screenplay.)
According to our best guesses, “One Battle” will win four of the head-to-head contests (plus one category in which its main opponent isn’t nominated), “Sinners” will win four (ditto) and three others will go to neither of them. But those are just guesses, because this is one of the most confounding Oscar races in years, with a lot of categories – definitely including Best Picture – still up in the air.
It’s an epic battle between two great films and two accomplished filmmakers who to all appearances like and admire each other. Here’s what we think for now.
Best Picture
Nominees: “Bugonia” “F1” “Frankenstein” “Hamnet” “Marty Supreme” “One Battle After Another” “The Secret Agent” “Sentimental Value” “Sinners” “Train Dreams”
Unless the ranked-choice voting system somehow helps “Hamnet” score an all-time upset, this is No. 1 on the list of tight races between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.” You can use precedent to explain why “One Battle” can’t lose (nothing that’s won the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild and ACE Eddie Awards has ever lost), and to explain why “Sinners” can’t lose (no film has ever won the Actor Awards ensemble, WGA and ACE and lost) – which is to say, precedent might be pretty meaningless this year.
But while “Sinners” feels as if it picked up momentum at exactly the right time, and part of me really wants to pick it, I just can’t ignore the fact that apart from the Actor Awards, which is only 50/50 as a Best Picture predictor, “One Battle” has won pretty much everything it could have won on the road to the Dolby Theater stage.
Predicted winner: “One Battle After Another”
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
The Paul Thomas Anderson narrative – he’s the greatest working filmmaker to have never won an Oscar – has been a part of this awards season since “One Battle” first screened in September. Even the people who’ve understandably jumped on the “Sinners” train tend to think that PTA will win this award, just as Jane Campion, Alfonso Cuarón, Damien Chazelle and Alejandro G. Iñárritu did for films that didn’t win Best Picture over the last 11 years. But if Ryan Coogler wins, and he just might, you’ll know exactly where the best-pic race is going.
Predicted winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Can one award on one March night turn an Oscar race upside down? Maybe. For months, Timothée Chalamet had been the odds-on favorite, winning at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. But when Chalamet lost to Michael B. Jordan at the Actor Awards on March 1, the room exploded and it immediately felt as if we had a new frontrunner. (It didn’t help Chalamet that he had lost at the BAFTAs a week earlier, though his loss to a British actor who wasn’t even eligible for the Oscar was far less damaging than his loss to Jordan.)
Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke remain dark-horse possibilities, and Chalamet still has the most precursor wins – but unless we’re attributing too much power to SAG-AFTRA voters (which we might be), this category’s theme song has become Nina Simone’s “Sinnerman.”
Predicted winner: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Once we got past the early critics-group wins for Rose Byrne, this category has belonged to Jessie Buckley. Her performance is the best shot for “Hamnet” to win an Oscar, and it’s all but a lock – though the well-liked Kate Hudson, who went to the Oscars 25 years ago as the supporting-actress favorite for “Almost Famous” but lost to Marcia Gay Harden, has the slightest of chances to pull off a big upset.
Predicted winner: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another” Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
The supporting categories feel completely up in the air. Sean Penn, Jacob Elordi and Benicio del Toro have all won precursor awards, with Penn the favorite given his BAFTA and Actor Award victories. But the two richly deserving veterans and first-time nominees, Stellan Skarsgård and Delroy Lindo, are real wild cards. I’m tempted to say that the international vote will tip the scales for Skarsgård, but on a complete hunch I’m going for Lindo, who wasn’t even nominated by Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA and Actor Award voters.
His Oscar nomination carries the same “he’s overdue!” feeling as Skarsgård’s, but “Sinners” also feels historic in a way “Sentimental Value” doesn’t. Still, if Penn wins, as most people expect him to, I’ll feel dumb about following my hunch.
Predicted winner: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” Amy Madigan, “Weapons” Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
This is another category that could go in a number of different directions, with Wunmi Mosaku and Teyana Taylor strong possibilities if “Sinners” or “One Battle” gets on a roll with voters. But everybody loves Amy Madigan, whose only other nomination was 40 (!) years ago. (Weren’t we just talking about actors who are overdue?) Her narrative might be irresistible, even if the numbers are discouraging: Only eight times in Oscar history has an actress won in this category as her film’s only nominee.
Predicted winner: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: “Bugonia” “Frankenstein” “Hamnet” “One Battle After Another” “Train Dreams”
The two writing categories seem pretty cut-and-dried – which makes sense, since the Best Picture winner has also won a writing Oscar 16 times in the last 20 years. One of the best-pic frontrunners is in each of the two screenplay categories, with “One Battle” facing a formidable adapted-screenplay contender in “Hamnet.” But it won at the Writers Guild Awards against the same lineup of fellow nominees, and it’s likely to do the same thing at the Oscars.
Predicted winner: “One Battle After Another”
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: “Blue Moon” “It Was Just an Accident” “Marty Supreme” “Sentimental Value” “Sinners”
The other Best Picture favorite, “Sinners,” is in this category, where its toughest competition might be “Sentimental Value.” “Sinners” won at BAFTA, Critics Choice and the Writers Guild Awards and isn’t expected to have much trouble winning here, too.
Predicted winner: “Sinners”
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: “Arco” “Elio” “KPop Demon Hunters” “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” “Zootopia 2”
Last year, the small European film (“Flow”) beat the big, expensive epics (“Inside Out 2” and “The Wild Robot”). This year, two small European films (“Arco” and “Little Amélie”) may split the vote, and both they and the two Disney/Pixar films (“Elio” and “Zootopia 2”) will likely do what they’ve been doing all season long: watch while the Netflix/Sony Animation juggernaut “KPop Demon Hunters” picks up the award. “Zootopia” has an outside chance to pull off an upset, but as the song says, things are “Golden” for “KPop.”
Predicted winner: “KPop Demon Hunters”
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: Brazil, “The Secret Agent” France, “It Was Just an Accident” Norway, “Sentimental Value” Spain, “Sirât” Tunisia, “The Voice of Hind Rajab”
In awards circles, a new rule of thumb is to never underestimate Brazil – witness the Golden Globes, where “The Secret Agent” scored upset wins in the Best Actor and Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language categories. But even with an increasingly international Academy, there is nowhere near as high a percentage of Brazilian voters for the Oscars as for the Golden Globes. And while “The Secret Agent” received an impressive four Oscar nominations, “Sentimental Value” earned nine, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and four for acting, tying “One Battle” for the most acting noms.
One baffling question: Given the recent events in Iran and the fact that writer-director Jafar Panahi received a one-year jail sentence in absentia for making “It Was Just an Accident,” why didn’t his film get more traction in the race? Or maybe it did, and we just won’t know that until Sunday evening.
Predicted winner: “Sentimental Value”
Best Documentary Feature Film
Nominees: “The Alabama Solution” “Come See Me in the Good Light” “Cutting Through Rocks” “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” “The Perfect Neighbor”
The humanity of “Come See Me in the Good Light” or the good humor of “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” make those films contenders, and there’s a chance that the large international contingent of voters could coalesce around one of the two non-U.S. films, “Mr. Nobody” or “Cutting Through Rocks.” But “The Perfect Neighbor,” a damning portrait of race in America built mostly from security-cam and police bodycam footage, has had the feel of a winner throughout the season.
Predicted winner: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Best Casting
Nominees: “Hamnet” “Marty Supreme” “One Battle After Another” “The Secret Agent” “Sinners”
In the first year for the new casting category, the nominees are mostly the top Best Picture contenders, with the Brazilian drama “The Secret Agent” being the only surprise. Like many categories, this will probably come down to “One Battle” vs. “Sinners.” The latter film seems to have the edge, given its wins at the Critics Choice Awards and the Casting Society’s Artios Awards – but it’s worth noting that it didn’t go up against “One Battle” at Artios, because its casting director isn’t a member of the CSA so the film wasn’t eligible.
Predicted winner: “Sinners”
Best Cinematography
Nominees: “Frankenstein” “Marty Supreme” “One Battle After Another” “Sinners” “Train Dreams”
As fun as it might be to imagine an upset win for “Train Dreams,” this is most likely another “One Battle”/“Sinners” showdown. While Autumn Durald Arkapaw once seemed destined to become the first-ever female and first-ever Black cinematography winner for “Sinners,” recent awards have been going to Michael Nauman for “One Battle” – including the key prize from the American Society of Cinematographers, which has gone to the Oscar winner six times in the last 10 years. (And when the ASC gives its award to a Best Picture nominee, as it did this year, the match is even stronger.)
Predicted winner: “One Battle After Another”
Best Film Editing
Nominees: “F1” “Marty Supreme” “One Battle After Another” “Sentimental Value” “Sinners”
The American Cinema Editors’ ACE Eddie Awards didn’t help clarify this race, because ACE gave its comedy award to “One Battle” and its drama award to “Sinners.” Then there’s “F1,” the likely winner in the sound category, which might be a real threat in editing because of the odd correlation between those two categories that resulted in eight matches in nine years between 2014 and 2022. Then again, editing and sound haven’t matched for the last three years, in which the editing Oscar has always gone to the Best Picture winner.
Predicted winner: “One Battle After Another”
Best Production Design
Nominees: “Frankenstein” “Hamnet” “Marty Supreme” “One Battle After Another” “Sinners”
Even people who didn’t embrace Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” conceded that the movie looks amazing, and it’s likely that Academy voters will do the same. From its laboratory to its majestic ship stuck in the Arctic wastes, del Toro’s film has a scale and grandeur that seems impossible not to celebrate – in this category, and in two other visual categories as well.
Predicted winner: “Frankenstein”
Best Costume Design
Nominees: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” “Frankenstein” “Hamnet” “Marty Supreme” “Sinners”
Production design and costume design go to the same film less than half the time, but “Frankenstein” is the kind of massively detailed film that has pulled off the twofer in the past: “Poor Things,” “Black Panther,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel” … Costume design might be the shakiest of the three predicted “Frankenstein” wins, but it’s not very shaky.
Predicted winner: “Frankenstein”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: “Frankenstein” “Kokuho” “Sinners” “The Smashing Machine” “The Ugly Stepsister”
Films that win production and costume design don’t usually feature bravura makeup, but “Frankenstein” does. For a while, this award went consistently to the artists who transformed actors into real people (Winston Churchill, Dick Cheney, Megyn Kelly, Tammy Faye Bakker … ) but it’s more recently swung back to bravura showcases for prosthetics (“The Whale,” “Poor Things,” “The Substance”), and it should continue in that vein this year.
Predicted winner: “Frankenstein”
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!” “Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”
Will the pop songs split the vote and give a win to the operatic aria, “Sweet Dreams of Joy?” Will Diane Warren finally win in her 17th nomination now that a rule change has put songwriters’ names on the Oscar ballot? Will “Sinners”’ status as a Best Picture favorite give the big song that backs its most memorable scene a boost? Well, no. Because “Golden” is a pop-culture sensation that was nominated for four Grammys, including Song of the Year. Plus, the recent Winter Olympics blasted the song at every opportunity. Resistance is futile.
Predicted winner: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
Best Original Score
Nominees: “Bugonia” “Frankenstein” “Hamnet” “One Battle After Another” “Sinners”
Here’s where the music of “Sinners” will register most strongly. Ludwig Goransson’s blues-based score serves as the heartbeat of the film and has given it an edge over its competitors – though there’s bold, adventurous and moving music in the category from a quartet of European composers: Jerskin Fendrix (“Bugonia”), Alexandre Desplat (“Frankenstein”), Max Richter (“Hamnet”) and Jonny Greenwood (“One Battle After Another”).
Predicted winner: “Sinners”
Best Sound
Nominees: “F1” “Frankenstein” “One Battle After Another” “Sinners” “Sirât”
This could be another “Sinners” victory, since that film did win an award from the Motion Picture Sound Editors on Sunday. But the other major sound organization, the Cinema Audio Society, honored “F1” the previous night, and that Formula One drama is likely to become the second recent racing movie (after 2019’s “Ford v Ferrari”) and the second recent Joseph Kosinski movie (after 2022’s “Top Gun: Maverick”) to win.
Predicted winner: “F1”
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” “F1” “Jurassic World Rebirth” “The Lost Bus” “Sinners”
Here’s one germane precedent: In the last 53 years, only one film not nominated for Best Picture has beaten a best-pic nominee in the category. (That would be 2016’s “Ex Machina,” which beat “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Martian” and “The Revenant.”) But here’s another germane precedent: No “Avatar” movie has ever lost in this category, with the original taking the award in 2010 and its sequel doing the same in 2023. Can James Cameron’s saga become the first franchise since “The Lord of the Rings” to go three-for-three? “Sinners” and “F1” stand in its way, with the former being a particular threat if the third “Avatar” feels like a case of been-there-done-that. On the other hand, it’s freakin’ “Avatar.”
Predicted winner: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Best Documentary Short Film
Nominees: “All the Empty Rooms” “Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” “Children No More: ‘Were and Are Gone’” “The Devil Is Busy” “Perfectly a Strangeness”
The three Oscar shorts categories can be maddening; for every time I nail the winners, there’s another instance in which the film I think is least likely to succeed takes home the statuette. This year’s doc-short lineup consists of serious films about school shootings, conflict journalism, killings in Gaza and abortion, plus a magnificently odd mood piece in which donkeys wander around an abandoned observatory in Chile.
The winner may depend on the mood of the voters who devote a couple of hours to watching all the films – but “All the Empty Rooms,” which follows CBS News reporter Steve Hartman as he visits the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings, is particularly wrenching in its quiet way.
Predicted winner: “All the Empty Rooms”
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees: “The Butterfly” “Forever Green” “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” “Retirement Plan” “The Three Sisters”
Voters in this category sometimes go for the most ambitious or artistic nominee, sometimes to the punchiest and most commercial, sometimes for the most personal. This year, it feels like a tossup: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” is the most visually distinctive and the only stop-motion nominee, “Retirement Plan” is the simplest and funniest (particularly to viewers of advancing years), “Forevergreen” might be the most commercial and “Butterfly” tells a story set in pre- and post-World War II Germany through animated paintings. The last of those might tick the most boxes for voters, but that’s just a guess.
Predicted winner: “Butterfly”
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees: “Butcher’s Stain” “A Friend of Dorothy” “Jane Austen’s Period Drama” “The Singers” “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
This is one of the strongest lineups of live-action shorts nominees in years, a varied collection of work that for the most part balances social commentary with the right amount of humor. The Israeli-set “Butcher’s Stain” is the timeliest and “Jane Austen’s Period Drama” is the funniest, but the three that have a real shot of winning are probably “A Friend of Dorothy,” a touching story with a beautiful performance by British acting legend Miriam Margolyes; “The Singers,” a richly shot Netflix film set in a bar where the grizzled patrons turn out to be unexpectedly great singers; and “Two People Exchanging Saliva,” a black-and-white French film set in a world where kissing is banned and money has been replaced by slaps in the face. Any of them would be winners worth celebrating, but the way in which an entire world is created and fleshed out in “Two People” might push it to victory.
(But remember my caveat at the beginning of the shorts discussion.)
Predicted winner: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Best Picture
Contender Probability
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One Battle After Another
Probability: 99%
No change: 0%
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Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
“One Battle After Another” marks the third consecutive Best Picture nominee for director Paul Thomas Anderson following “Licorice Pizza” and “Phantom Thread.”
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Sinners
Probability: 7.69%
Up: 6.69%
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Nominations: Oscars, PGA, Critics Choice
This century, when a nomination leader also won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards, it also won Best Picture 89% of the time. The only holdout was “American Hustle.” However, only two movies have won Best Picture after only winning SAG ensemble: “Crash” and “Parasite,” neither of which was a nomination leader. “Sinners” has momentum, but a Best Picture win would be a massive upset.
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Hamnet
Probability: 3.8%
Down: -29.53%
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Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: GG
“Hamnet’s” wins and losses this season resemble three other films this century, including “Moonlight,” which won Best Picture.
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Frankenstein
Probability: 3.8%
Down: -10.49%
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Nominations: Oscars, SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Five other films this century have gotten the same Best Picture nominations and wins as “Frankenstein.” One (“Million Dollar Baby”) won Best Picture.
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Sentimental Value
Probability: 1%
No change: 0%
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Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: SAG
Joachim Trier’s “The Worst Person in the World” picked up nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, but it was not recognized in Best Picture or any acting categories.
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Train Dreams
Probability: 1%
No change: 0%
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Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Joel Edgerton last starred in a Best Picture nominee in 2012 (“Zero Dark Thirty”)
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The Secret Agent
Probability: 1%
No change: 0%
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Nominations: Oscars, GG
Last year, “I’m Still Here” became the first Brazilian film and the first Portuguese-speaking film nominated for Best Picture. “The Secret Agent” is now the second.
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Marty Supreme
Probability: 1%
No change: 0%
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Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Only four films this century have won Best Actor and Best Picture: “Gladiator,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Artist” and “Oppenheimer.”
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F1
Probability: 1%
No change: 0%
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Nominations: Oscars, PGA
Read TheWrap’s coverage with the team behind “F1” here
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Bugonia
Probability: 1%
No change: 0%
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Nominations: Oscars, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
“Bugonia” marks Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone’s third collaboration (following “The Favourite” and “Poor Things”) to get a Best Picture nomination.
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