President Donald Trump’s current strategy in Iran is leading him into a “trap” of his own making, terrorism expert and legal scholar Robert Pape warned in a segment on CNN Wednesday morning.
This comes amid a growing fear and division among Republicans on the ethical and political advisability of following Trump on his Iran plans.
“Your take on this has been very, very interesting, but let’s start here,” said anchor Kate Bolduan, referencing his recent Substack post, “The Escalation Trap.” “You say that the United States is now entering the most dangerous phase in this military campaign so far. Explain why.”
“Thanks for having me on, Kate,” said Pape. “For 30 years, I have studied air power and escalation. I’ve taught for the U.S. Air Force for 20 years. I’ve modeled the bombing of Iran, taking out [nuclear facilities at] Fordow, Natanz, and regime change.”
The bottom line, Pape continued, is that “President Trump is up against the weight of history. For over 100 years states have been trying to topple governments with air power alone. And, and — I’m choosing my words carefully — it has never worked.”
“We are now about to enter the most dangerous phase of the escalation trap, as I call it, where initial success with precision weapons, which are tactically effective — and you see, we killed the Supreme Leader — lead to strategic failure, which then suck us deeper and deeper into a conflict,” said Pape. “We didn’t plan to go deeper and deeper, and we kept saying we would not. And we are about to enter that phase in the next week or two.”
In other words, he added, “This will be the most dangerous moment of the crisis.”
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