In today’s edition … Could the stock market change Trump’s view on Iran? … We ask for your views on flying in America … but first …
The shutdown that everyone has forgotten
Remember the government shutdown?
Few do, it seems, including those on Capitol Hill tasked with keeping the government open.
Typically, even partial government shutdowns cause panic that consumes Congress, overshadowing other issues. That just hasn’t happened during this partial shutdown.
The House of Representatives is out all week, with Republicans in Florida for their annual retreat. The Senate is in town, working on a housing bill, among other issues. But the path forward to reopening the unfunded Department of Homeland Security, which has been shut down since Feb. 14, is wildly unclear.
The impasse is caused by a fundamental disagreement about the department’s immigration activities in the wake of an immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis that left two Americans dead.
Democrats want tighter controls on Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which falls under DHS, in exchange for their votes to reopen the department. They show no signs of breaking, with Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine (Virginia) stating over the weekend that the party wants to fund every part of DHS except those that deal with immigration — reopening the Transportation Security Administration, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Coast Guard, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
“Thus far, Republicans have blocked those efforts,” Kaine said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “We want to fund those agencies. And we have a funding agreement that’s already been negotiated between both parties and both houses. So let’s do that.”
Republicans have maintained that they want the department fully funded, not broken out into pieces.
While DHS is shut down, its immigration enforcement arms actually have the money to continue functioning as normal — those agencies received $170 billion for immigration enforcement under the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill, a point Republicans have repeatedly made in calling for Democrats to make a deal.
“Democrats know ICE is already funded, but they are willing to force hardworking Americans to suffer just to push their radical agenda and cater to their far-Left base,” said Delanie Bomar, spokesperson for the Republican National Committee.
Negotiations appear to be stalled. And as our colleague Paul Kane noted near the outset of DHS’s closure: “Government shutdowns usually need a pressure point to force a compromise that brings them to their end. There’s no sign of any such pressure point in the current shutdown.”
One such pressure point might be that the shutdown is starting to affect everyday Americans. Flyers in Houston and New Orleans have faced hours-long wait times at security checkpoints staffed by DHS employees, who are going without pay and missed their first paycheck this month. Some Republicans believe that worsening airport delays will help soften Democratic resolve on the shutdown.
Another pressure point on the horizon could be the Trump administration’s effort to confirm Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Oklahoma) as the next DHS head. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem was reassigned last week after months of controversy.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) said in the wake of Noem’s ouster that Mullin’s accession and confirmation process could be a “huge development” in the debate over funding.
But Democrats have largely shrugged off any suggestion that Mullin’s nomination could represent a path to funding the agency he could soon lead.
“It’s not like Kristi Noem was the one who was involved in negotiating anything. She was a corrupt lackey,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said last week. “So, we were dealing with the White House before, and we’re going to continue to deal with the White House at this point.”
Get ready with The Post
- In Trump’s Washington, Congress matters less than ever, from Liz Goodwin.
- An Iraq veteran voted for peace. Her teen starts basic training at wartime, from Danielle Paquette.
- Iran war’s oil shock fuels GOP political anxiety, from Hannah Knowles.
- Anthropic sues Pentagon over national security risk label, from Ian Duncan and Elizabeth Dwoskin.
- Consumer advocates, Democrats denounce Live Nation deal as inadequate, from Jeremy Roebuck, Ethan Beck and Will Oremus.
What we’re watching
President Donald Trump is uniquely focused on the state of the stock market. He brags about it regularly, he has made it central to his argument that the economy is succeeding, and his top lieutenants have even used its relative strength to dismiss other controversies.
“The stock market, you can say what you want, but it’s a hell of an indicator,” Trump said in 2025.
That’s why it’s worth watching how the market’s recent slide — the Dow closed up 0.5 percent Monday after days of losses — could affect the president’s decision-making.
The war in Iran, spurred by Trump, is the reason for the downturn. Stock markets worldwide are spooked by soaring gas prices, with some estimates projecting that the average cost of a gallon of gas could surpass $4 by the end of the week.
Our colleagues Todd C. Frankel, Evan Halper and Isaac Arnsdorf have been tracking the jittery markets and noted this trend: “Oil prices reached heights not seen since the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine on Monday before falling back by the time markets closed, as the Trump administration sent mixed signals about its Iran plans. … The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, had at one point spiked to nearly $120, a level that could translate into gas prices surpassing a national average of $4 per gallon.”
It would be shocking if Trump wasn’t following the markets — he always does. And he took to Truth Social to argue that rising gas prices were a “very small price to pay” for the Iran conflict, which he wrote would result in “Safety and Peace.”
It will be worth watching whether that presidential resolve holds. We saw Trump alter his tariff policy in the face of a market downturn — moves that led to the term TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Is an Iranian TACO in the president’s future?
There are already some signs that Trump may move to wrap up the fighting soon. Days after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told CBS that this moment was “just the beginning” of the war, Trump told CBS on Monday in an interview that he believed “the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force.”
In your local paper
The Minnesota Star Tribune : We highlighted the impact the Iran war is having on gas prices, and this Midwest newspaper forecasts that prices will rise throughout this week. “I believe there is roughly an 80 percent chance the national average price of gasoline reaches $4 per gallon within the next month, or sooner,” a representative from Gasbuddy.com told the paper.
Bridge Detroit (Michigan): A great deal has been made about Detroit’s revitalization. But the city’s poverty numbers remain concerning — “more than 30% of the population, and half of young children, live in poverty, and many struggle to afford the basics … as homelessness is increasing.” Newly elected Mayor Mary Sheffield is focused on turning that around.
WisPolitics (Wisconsin): State Supreme Court Justice Annette Ziegler announced that she will not seek reelection in 2027, creating an opening on the important swing-state court. Ziegler is generally seen as part of its conservative wing, giving Democrats a chance to shift the court’s balance.
Sacramento Bee (California): Rep. Kevin Kiley will soon become the House’s sole independent, leaving the Republican Party after redistricting in California significantly complicated his path toward reelection. He plans to still caucus with Republicans in the House.
Send a reply
Both of your friendly newsletter writers spent the weekend flying around the country for work. So we wanted to ask: How do you feel about the state of the airline industry and flying in the United States? Is it stressful, or do you enjoy it? What would you change if you could?
Our colleague Andrea Sachs recently asked, “Why do airlines hate basic economy passengers?” Do you feel like airlines appreciate your business? Let us and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan and Matthew on X: @merica and @matthewichoi.
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