Stocks emerged unscathed from a wild day in the oil markets. Can it last?
The price of oil eclipsed the all-important $100-a-barrel benchmark, and everyone got really nervous. (Here’s a roundup of what a bunch of smart people said.)
But G7 countries pledged to release strategic oil reserves if needed, easing oil prices. President Donald Trump’s insistence the war is “very complete” was another boost. By market close, major indexes actually finished the day in the green as oil prices dropped.
At least, for now.
Wall Street vet Ed Yardeni, who is typically bullish, raised the chances of a stock meltdown from 20% to 35%. He also mentioned the dreaded s-word — stagflation — in a nod to the 1970s oil crisis that gave investors headaches.
Others are less fearful. Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note to clients on Monday that fears over oil prices spiking inflation are overblown. The reason? The US labor market is too weak to support large price spikes.
“Higher inflation expectations will be meaningless if employers still hold the cards in wage setting and their customers retrench,” wrote Samuel Tombs, Pantheon’s chief US economist.
Energy economist Daniel Yergin is also taking an optimistic view. He believes the global economy is more resilient than we’re giving it credit for.
Ultimately, what matters most is how long this oil crisis lasts.
An extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be a lot harder for the markets and economy to shake off than just a one-off price spike.
“While market and survey-based inflation expectations can be sensitive to oil at high frequency, history suggests only marked and persistent spikes in the price of crude trigger persistent inflationary cycles,” BofA analysts wrote.
That’s not stopping some people from preparing for the worst.
Governments are offering suggestions to help people mitigate the impact of oil price spikes, from cutting out non-essential travel to offering more flexible work.
As useful as some of that advice might be, it’s not always actionable for Americans. With so many US cities suffering from subpar public transportation, avoiding the gas pump won’t be easy.
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