President Donald Trump was eager to point to gas prices in his State of the Union speech last month as he touted his administration’s progress on the economy.
“Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor — it was, quite honestly, a disaster — is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states,” Trump boasted minutes into his nearly-two-hour address, framing his party’s message heading into the midterms.
Two weeks later, his war with Iran threatens to undermine that pitch.
Oil prices Monday spiked to levels not seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, while prices at the pump jumped nearly 50 cents higher than a week ago. The price per barrel jumped to almost $120 at one point Monday before dropping to under $90 by the end of the day as Trump suggested the war with Iran could end soon. But the roller coaster still left some in his party anxious about the political and economic fallout, particularly as Iran has vowed to continue retaliatory strikes.
The higher prices have intensified some Republicans’ warnings about the political risks of a drawn-out conflict as the Trump administration has issued conflicting messages about its plans. On Monday, Trump said at one point the war was nearly finished, then hours later told Republican lawmakers that he would press ahead in Iran seeking “ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.”
“We have Only Just Begun to Fight,” the Department of War declared on social media Monday, just before Trump toldCBS News that the war was “very complete.”
Even as the White House asserted the price hikes would be temporary, it became clear Monday that Trump sought to stem the political fallout. In a social media post late Monday, the president warned that Iran would be hit “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if the country does anything to stop the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz.
Republicans already face a challenging political environment in this year’s elections. The president’s party historically loses seats in the midterms, and Trump’s approval has dropped in recent months, driven in part by concerns about rising costs, which the president’s advisers have urged him to focus on.
“Gas was one thing that they have been touting as an economic win,” said Mitchell Brown, a Republican pollster working on midterm races. “A reversal on that obviously makes the message harder.”
The volatility of the situation — a little more than a week into the war — has injected new uncertainty into GOP plans to tout their progress on the economy. One consultant for a Republican congressional candidate, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations, recounted having to recently rewrite a fundraising pitch that touted gas prices from before the war broke out in late February.
Democrats, meanwhile, were quick to blast Republicans over gas prices as part of a broader argument that Trump is distracted from economic issues at home. Some on the right have made similar criticisms of Trump in recent months, accusing him of entangling the United States in the kinds of costly foreign conflicts he once derided.
The White House emphasized Monday that elevated prices would be temporary.
“President Trump has been clear that these are short-term disruptions and that Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly again once the necessary objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been achieved and the regime’s capabilities are neutralized,” said White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers, referring to the U.S. and Israeli military campaign in Iran.
Trump has been dismissive of rising oil prices in recent days. Over the weekend, he wrote on social media that the higher oil costs were a “small price to pay” for safety, adding “ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
He drew some unusual rebukes from the right last week as he said he was unconcerned about higher gas prices. “If they rise, they rise,” he told Reuters, predicting a rapid drop “when this is over.”
Matt Walsh, a conservative influencer, soon toldhis more than 4 million followers on X that they “aren’t helping anything, least of all our chances in the midterms, by pretending that this is good messaging.”
Many Republicans are eager for the war to end quickly, and Trump’s latest comments boosted their hopes the gas price spike will be short-lived.
“As we saw the last 24 hours, it’s a very volatile [situation] … This will start to calm down as this conflict is resolved,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Montana). “I’m confident it will be resolved.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) told reporters he is “always concerned about the price of oil, the price of gasoline.”
“I hope that the operations there are successful and that once those objectives have been achieved that things can resume some sense of normalcy in that region,” Thune said.
Trump campaigned on criticism of soaring inflation under President Joe Biden and promised to swiftly bring down prices.
Now, some Republicans worry about falling into similar traps. Trump’s approval ratings on the economy — a longtime political strength — have fallen since he took office.
Neera Tanden, a senior White House official under Biden who now leads the left-leaning Center for American Progress, said price jumps under Trump could be especially damaging because there’s an “easy story” to tell about how Trump’s policies caused them.
“They only have one person to blame and that is the president of the United States,” she said.
Republicans were mostly supportive of the U.S. strikes on Iran in a Washington Post pollconducted just after the military operation began. But independents opposed them by about 2 to 1, and the public overall is critical. Three-quarters of Americans said they are concerned about the possibility of a full-scale war with Iran.
How the war ultimately plays politically will depend on whether Trump can end it quickly, many in the GOP said, and how wide-reaching the repercussions are — including how long gas prices stay elevated. One GOP operative in a swing state, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly, said they worry price hikes will lead to “bloodbath” for Republicans in the midterms.
“If this goes on beyond, I’d say, two months, then people are going to be really concerned about it,” said Martha Zoller, a conservative radio host in Georgia, where Republicans face some of their most competitive congressional races. She recently filled up her tank for $3.19 a gallon; two weeks earlier, she said, she paid $2.59.
She added that every candidate she has interviewed “said they’re hearing from people the same thing: yeah, nobody wants to pay more, but they understand this is a short-term thing.”
Administration officials are “very sensitive” to energy costs for consumers and have been discussing options to bring gas prices down such as asking producers to drill more, lifting sanctions on Russia and releasing oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to Dan Eberhart, a GOP donor and oil executive. The administration has eased some sanctions already.
“The administration is well aware of how important gasoline prices are and is focused on trying to find a quick solution,” Eberhart said.
Theodoric Meyer contributed to this report.
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