The spike in oil prices precipitated by the American and Israeli attack on Iran is rippling throughout global economies. On Monday, the price of oil rose to nearly $120 a barrel, before settling back down to around $90 after President Trump suggested the war could be over soon. Oil was about $70 a barrel before the conflict began on Feb. 28. Jet fuel rose more than 58 percent as of March 6 compared to the week before, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Market volatility only adds to the confusion around flight prices. But the last time oil rose more than 40 percent — in 2022, on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — airfares jumped 28 percent.
So far, no American carrier has announced price hikes. But they are beginning to trickle in elsewhere: Air New Zealand and SAS, for instance, are among the international airlines that have recently announced fare increases tied to the rising price of jet fuel.
For airlines today, the cost of flying has sharply increased, but will they pass those costs on to consumers and, if so, how? We asked experts to weigh in on the potential effects travelers may feel.
How will higher oil prices affect the cost of a ticket?
Fuel is the second-largest expense, after labor, for an airline. In the United States, most carriers stopped the practice of hedging against oil spikes long ago, leaving them vulnerable to market fluctuations.
Asked last week at an academic event about rising airfares linked to surging oil prices, United Airlines’ chief executive, Scott Kirby, said the effect of higher fuel costs on airfares would “probably start quick.” (Asked for comment, a representative for United said it had “nothing additional to add.”)
“The second he said it, that gave airlines permission to increase fares,” said Henry H. Harteveldt, the president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel research and advisory firm based in San Francisco.
But how — and how much — costs may rise is unclear. Mr. Harteveldt noted that airlines have many ways to recoup ballooning fuel expenses beyond a blanket increase, including charging more for tickets in business and first class, where the pinch may sting less; raising fees for ancillary services like checking bags or assigning seats; eliminating or reducing the number of seats sold for the lowest fares on certain routes; consolidating departures; or increasing fuel surcharges on international flights.
“All of these are ways airlines can push travelers into paying more for flights,” he said.
Are all airlines affected equally?
Wherever they fly, low-cost carriers are more likely to suffer compared with competitors.
“Budget airlines such as Spirit and Frontier are in the toughest position,” said Julian Kheel, the founder and chief executive of Points Path, a service that compares cash airfares to paying with points. “Carriers with premium cabins have the option to shift some fuel costs onto business and first-class travelers, who are relatively insensitive to price increases. But low-cost carriers don’t have that cushion, which means their passengers will bear the full brunt.”
But that doesn’t mean major global carriers won’t have to adjust prices. The efficiency of planes, often related to their age or engineering, and the distance they fly help determine how much fuel an airline consumes.
“In addition to rising jet fuel prices, the war is creating a double hit for airlines, as many international flights now also have to detour around closed airspace, which means burning even more fuel,” said Mr. Kheel.
The disruptions, restrictions and closures in Gulf cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha — critical aviation hubs for global traffic — are likely to affect pricing as well as routing. To avoid transiting through that region, international fliers are increasingly turning to Europe, which may tighten availability there and push prices higher.
How long will the situation last?
No one knows how long the war will last, but historically, airfares have mirrored surges in the price of oil.
“If you look at prices in past oil crises in 2022 and 2008, you see spikes in flight prices,” said Scott Keyes, the founder of Going.com, a service devoted to finding cheap airfares.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 pushed up oil prices for much of the year, when the average U.S. annual inflation rate was 8 percent. In that case, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production, which helped bring prices down, said Mr. Harteveldt.
“We don’t know the end game with this war,” he said.
Postwar recovery may add to the costs.
“The biggest factor impacting airfares is how long this all lasts,” said Mr. Keyes, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet from the Persian Gulf, which handles an estimated 20 percent of global oil supply. “The longer the shutdown, the longer it takes to get going.”
Should I buy an airline ticket now?
Consumers may have to hedge their bets on upcoming summer travel. The best way to do that is to ensure you are booking a penalty-free flight that will offer a flight credit or refund if you cancel. That way, in the best-case scenario, if the airfare falls, you can cancel and use the credit to rebook at a lower airfare.
Most legacy carriers, but not their low-cost peers, still offer tickets that, if changed, give you a credit to use on a future flight, usually within a year. This does not apply to most basic economy fares, so book carefully.
“If you’re concerned about the price dropping later, you’re not out of luck,” said Mr. Keyes. “All things considered, I would be booking sooner rather than later but also checking the price after booking to see if it drops.”
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Elaine Glusac is The Times’s Frugal Traveler columnist, focusing on budget-friendly tips and journeys.
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