A pitch from Donald Trump to present himself as the strongman of the Middle East could destabilize the world, a political analyst has warned.
Though the U.S. joined Israel with a series of strikes on Iran, longer-term changes in the Middle East could prove troublesome for other world leaders not involved in the conflict. CNN analysts Stephen Collinson, Kylie Atwood, and Tal Shalev, suggest the strong-arming Trump has used to pull the U.S. into war with the Middle East could affect the wider world, irrespective of success.
The trio wrote, “Relentless US and Israeli air attacks — in a military playbook that feels far more planned out than the political one — stand a strong chance of neutering Tehran’s power to threaten its neighbors.
“This would benefit the wider Middle East, bill Trump as a regional strongman, deliver Israel from an existential threat, and improve U.S. national security after a near 50-year feud with the Islamic Republic.
“But without full regime change, Iranians might still pay a heavy price if crackdowns rather than counter-revolution follow. And if Trump’s war shatters the Iranian state and sparks civil war, a refugee crisis or grave economic consequence could destabilize the world.”
Further trouble for European nations could be brewing too, according to Julien Barnes-Dacey, program director for the Middle East at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who believes most countries do not know what to do about the ongoing situation.
“They are, globally now, responding to the daily whims of a U.S. president who is causing immense disruption,” Barnes-Dacey said. “They are caught between a rock and a hard place.
“On the one hand, they want to cling on to some sense of international law, or the rules-based order, and then on the other hand, they are desperately trying to keep themselves in Trump’s good books.”
Some nations now find themselves on the opposing end of what Trump wants and may incur the wrath of the president. Sophia Gaston, a senior research fellow at the Center for Statecraft and National Security in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, believes Trump wants a demonstration of loyalty from the UK.
She said, “The more a country like Britain invests in its sovereign strength, prosperity and capability, the more attractive it also then becomes for the United States as a partner, but also the more it can defend its own interests against the turbulence of such an alliance.”
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