Americans are understandably focused on the war in Iran. Yet President Donald Trump is simultaneously laying the groundwork for a visit to China at the end of this month, and some worrying signs are emerging in how he is managing America’s relationship with its most important rival.
In his first term, Trump forged a bipartisan consensus that America should take competition with China more seriously. It seemed he was on a similar track after imposing crushing tariffs on Beijing last year, but the president has taken a notably dovish turn since China retaliated with restrictions on the export of critical minerals. The next step in Trump’s detente is a planned summit in Beijing with Xi Jinping.
The agenda is already full with trade and economic discussions, and Trump is likely to advocate for the release of Hong Kong political prisoner Jimmy Lai. But Taiwan, the self-ruled island democracy that China considers a breakaway province, always hangs over every discussion.
A Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan would devastate the global economy. Taiwan currently produces about 90 percent of the world’s most advanced computer chips, and a disruption of that supply would almost immediately halt the production of cars, smartphones, medical devices and computers.
A conflict would also expose gaping vulnerabilities in the U.S. military. Semiconductors, or microchips, are foundational in missile systems, fighter jets and GPS satellites.
Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. Energy prices have spiked globally, but the U.S. has softened the blow of this oil shock by increasing domestic energy production, thanks to the shale revolution.
Meanwhile, the Taiwan Strait remains the main highway moving technology and consumer goods from the factories of Northeast Asia to the stores of America. Some 20 percent of all global maritime trade passes through the Taiwan Strait. A blockade by China could cause a $10.6 trillion hit to the world’s economies in a year, about 9.6 percent of global economic activity, according to one reliable estimate.
Xi hasn’t ruled out taking Taiwan with force. It’s in the world’s interest for America to deter such a conflict, which is why the Trump administration announced an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan in December. The new weapons would include sophisticated rocket systems, drones and self-propelled howitzers.
But this package has been delayed, reportedly because Trump is concerned about upsetting Xi before their talks. He appears to be prioritizing getting a trade deal with China over assisting with Taiwan’s defense, but the best way to promote stability is to make China believe an invasion wouldn’t succeed.
Maintaining stable relations with China is important. But so is defending free trade, navigation and open supply chains in the Pacific. Sending more weapons to Taiwan will raise Beijing’s ire, but delaying is a costly mistake that could encourage more aggression down the road.
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