Three members of the Donald Trump administration have confirmed to the Washington Post that a classified document created by the National Intelligence Council poured cold water on the president’s hopes about regime change in Iran following his war launch.
According to the Post, the warning was completed a week before the president gave the go-ahead for the Department of Defense, under Secretary Pete Hegseth to proceed with the bombings on February 28th. The classified report examined succession scenarios under two potential military scenarios: a targeted campaign against Iran’s leadership or a broader assault on its government institutions. In both cases, intelligence analysts concluded that “Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power,” according to those familiar with the findings. The National Intelligence Council comprises veteran intelligence analysts tasked with producing classified assessments representing the combined judgment of Washington’s 18 intelligence agencies. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly dismissed the implications in a statement to the Post, asserting: “President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.” Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president at the Brookings Institution, characterized the NIC assessment as credible, stating: “It sounds like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been established for many years.”
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