The number of Republican lawmakers heading to the exit of the deeply dysfunctional Congress is not good for President Donald Trump and GOP leaders as they try to cling to the House majority in the midterms amid mounting headwinds.
On Thursday, scandal-plagued Rep. Tony Gonzales announced he would not seek reelection as he faced a House Ethics Committee investigation for an affair with his ex-staffer, who died last year by suicide.
Gonzales was headed to a runoff with right-wing gun-loving influencer Brandon Herrera when he bowed out of the race in the competitive Texas district.
His decision not to run again was unique to his situation and unlike the many others scrambling for the exit. But it still marks the 34th Republican incumbent who has decided not to seek reelection in the House as Democrats set their sights on more districts than ever.
The 34 Republican House members not seeking reelection matches the number of GOP lawmakers who did not run again in 2018, when Democrats swept in during Trump’s first term with a blue wave and picked up 41 seats.
This week alone, three GOP members announced they were not running again, including Reps. Ryan Zinke of Montana and Burgess Owens of Utah.
Perhaps even more telling is the significant number of Senate Republican senators not seeking reelection, pointed out Democratic strategist Max Burns, who argued that what it shows is “regardless of what they say in public, plenty of GOP lawmakers are getting internal polling that suggests Trump has steered them into a disaster.
“Even GOP lawmakers don’t feel like they can exert enough influence on the White House to course correct, so it’s easier to just walk away,” he added.
While not all retirements are from competitive districts, and some lawmakers chose not to run in the House to seek higher office, the landscape and figures look bleak, as incumbents tend to do better in reelection bids than unknown candidates.
Currently, House Republicans have a razor-thin majority with just 218 seats to Democrats’ 214. If they lose even one seat, they lose their working majority.
Back in 2018, when 34 Republicans retired, the GOP held a 241-seat majority over the Democrats’ 194 in the 115th Congress. But Democrats swept through with a blue wave and picked up 41 seats, bringing the new Democrat-controlled House majority to 235 to 199.
This year, more Democrats are retiring than in 2018, but the number remains similar: 18 Democrats retired ahead of the 2018 midterms. To date, 21 Democrats are retiring this year, far fewer than the 34 Republicans.
It comes after Trump has had lower approval ratings more than one year into his second term than he had during his first term, as the midterms are seen as a referendum on the president.
“Retirements are definitely trending in the wrong direction. Some of them are from safe districts, but an uptick in retirements is usually correlated with the difficulty of the political environment ahead of the midterms,” said Republican strategist Kevin Madden.
Madden noted the Republican campaign committee fundraising ahead of the environment at least keeps them competitive.
Mark Bedner, who was an adviser to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, noted each retirement “means the party needs to devote resources and recruiting efforts to introduce a new candidate ot voters, and risks having fewer resources and attention to the swingiest of seats.”
But he argued Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans remain in a good position because they have the money and message to keep the majority.
The Daily Beast asked the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment on the number of GOP retirements.
Initially, House Speaker Mike Johnson had held off on calling for Gonzales to exit the race ahead of Tuesday’s primary despite the bombshell accusations against him. Instead, the speaker argued they would see how the primary played out.
But on Thursday, after the results forced the primary to a runoff with Herrera leading and the ethics investigation against the congressman was announced, Republican leaders called on the embattled congressman not to seek reelection.
Democrats celebrate Gonzales’ downfall and the prospect of their candidate Katy Padilla Stout running against Herrera in the competitive border district in November.
“Deputy Speaker Mike Johnson tried to quietly push sexual harasser Tony Gonzales through his primary out of fear of defending a Neo-Nazi,” DCCC spokesperson Justin Chermon told the Daily Beast. “Now Gonzales is gone, and House Republicans have added another casualty to their massive retirement list. Good riddance.”
It was Gonzales who first started labeling his GOP challenger as a “known Neo-Nazi” for posting videos featuring Nazi imagery when he first challenged him in 2024. Herrera, who is also known as “The AK Guy,” repeatedly denied it.
The heavily Hispanic district has long been competitive, but the recent redistricting was expected to make it more favorable to Republicans. However, with Hispanic voters feeling the GOP in Trump’s second term after he made major gains with Hispanic voters in 2024, it might not work out for Republicans in the state the way they had intended.
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