President Donald Trump’s administration made a bet on Iran’s postwar future based on a faulty assumption, according to experts.
The 79-year-old president and his advisers displayed a “lack of understanding about the makeup of the Iranian state” that could complicate their goal of achieving regime change, international history professor Abdullah al-Arian told Al Jazeera.
“I think there was an assumption that it mirrors something like in Gaddafi’s Libya or Saddam’s Iraq, in which you basically sideline or get rid of a figurehead and then all of a sudden the entire state nearly collapses or that you had such internal opposition that it would coalesce into something in support of the U.S. air strikes,” said al-Arian, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar.
“None of those things have happened as of now,” he added, “so the U.S. finds itself in an incredibly difficult position, which is why we’re continuing to hear about this idea of arming opposition groups on the basis of necessity.”
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the early stages of the joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, but he was 86 years old, so al-Arian said Iran had “contingencies in place,” and another expert agreed that allowed the country’s leadership structure to continue operating.
“These bodies make strategic decisions and then take them to the leadership council,” said Hassan Ahmadian, an associate professor at the University of Tehran.
Ahmadian told al Jazeera that a leadership council alongside the Supreme National Security Council was currently overseeing major strategic decisions in Iran in accordance with its constitution, and he said deliberations appear to be taking place within the Guardian Council.
“I don’t see a scenario where there will be a power vacuum,” Ahmadian said.
Iran has not yet named a new supreme leader, but al-Arian said that should not be surprising since the U.S. has threatened to attack them.
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