A former major British intelligence chief has issued a stark warning about potential fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran, cautioning that the consequences could be far more unpredictable than many anticipate.
In a Wednesday interview with Christiane Amanpour on CNN, former MI6 chief John Sawers described the conflict as “an unnecessary war” and said it was “not required, because it was not as if it was to pre-empt an imminent threat” against the United States or Israel.
The U.S. and Israel launched unprovoked “major combat operations” against Iran over the weekend, which saw Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and dozens of Iranian officials killed.
Sawers, 70, who was the chief of the British Intelligence Service between 2009 and 2014, is frequently compared to the fictional James Bond.
The spy chief’s role as the head of British Intelligence would be more accurately compared to the role of Judy Dench’s character M, which in real life is referred to as ‘C.’ Sawers has also served as a diplomat and a representative to the United Nations.
Sawers’ assement of the war comes as Trump has offered several different explanations for his decision to strike the country, including imminent missile threats and the development of missiles “that could soon reach the American homeland,” as well as claims that Iran had rebuffed efforts to curb its nuclear program.
On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “The president had a good feeling that the Iranian regime was going to strike the United States’ assets and our personnel in the region—and the president was faced with a choice: Does the United States of America use our military and our capabilities to strike first, to take out this threat that has been threatening our country and our people for 47 years?
“Or is he going to, as Commander-in-Chief, sit back and watch as the rogue Iranian regime attacks our people in the region?… The second choice is unacceptable to the president of the United States.”
The president has also failed to offer a concrete plan for when the U.S. might retreat from Iran, with the timeline for airstrikes shifting from a matter of days to more than a month.
Critics have warned that without a clear plan, Trump risks creating another “forever war” in the Middle East that would create chaos.
Sawers suggested that the best possible outcome for Iran would resemble a Venezuela‑style scenario, in which a successor regime behaves differently from its predecessors. “The very best you can expect is a sort of Venezuela‑type outcome,” Sawers said.
Trump’s intervention in Venezuela culminated in a dramatic U.S. military operation in early January 2026 that led to the ouster and capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
In the aftermath, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was installed as interim president, diplomatic relations with the U.S. were restored, and sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports were lifted.
But Sawers said he doubts the same outcome could occur in Iran because the country has a “deeply ideological regime,” while noting “there are plenty of other, more dangerous outcomes coming from this.”
Among the risks he outlined is the possibility of regime collapse or fragmentation, which could turn Iran into a “failed state” similar to Syria. In such a scenario, he warned, the country could become a “centre for terrorism, for smuggling, for gun running, for drugs, for criminality of all sorts,” posing threats far beyond its borders.
Sawers also highlighted the humanitarian and geopolitical consequences of a total breakdown of order, including potential refugee flows to the United States.
While Sawers acknowledged that “yes, we want to change Iran’s behavior,” he cautioned that dismantling the regime entirely could unleash chaos reminiscent of Afghanistan, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria.
The intelligence veteran emphasized that it remains in “America’s interests, and … certainly in the interests of Europe” for Tehran to be replaced by a government “that still has authority over the country and can be held to account.”
Since Trump launched the airstrikes, he has been under pressure to define his endgame in Iran.
In a letter sent to Congress by Trump under the War Powers Act, obtained by CBS News, the 79-year-old admitted that he does not know the “full scope” of military operations in Iran.
“Although the United States desires a quick and enduring peace, it is not possible at this time to know the full scope and duration of military operations that may be necessary,” Trump wrote.
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