From its strikes on Iran to its global tariffs, the United States has wielded military force and economic threats to impose its will. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, is preparing for this era of perilous rivalry by pouring resources into artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategic technologies, while also expanding the country’s armed forces.
Mr. Xi’s ambitious goals for the next five years of China’s technological ascent were expected to be endorsed at a weeklong meeting of the national legislature in Beijing that started on Thursday. The approach reflects Mr. Xi’s view that competition with the United States will ultimately be decided by technological innovation that drives economic, military and cultural strength.
The plan, according to an outline of it announced in October, will call for fostering new engines of economic growth in emerging industries like quantum computing, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence and 6G.
As China’s relationship with the United States has deteriorated, threatening Beijing’s access to U.S. technology, leaders in Beijing see this race as ever more urgent. In a speech in October about the outlines of the five-year plan, Mr. Xi called on the country to “seize this window of opportunity to consolidate and expand our advantages, break through bottlenecks and constraints, and address weaknesses and shortcomings.”
Even as Mr. Xi is preparing to host President Trump in early April to try to extend a trade truce, he is doubling down on a strategy of ensuring that China’s economy and military are not vulnerable to being cut off by the West from advanced semiconductors and other critical technologies.
“Chinese leaders have a view that Washington will continue trying to constrain China’s technological development,” said Gerard DiPippo, an associate director of the China Research Center at RAND, a research organization. “That belief underpins the urgency behind self-reliance efforts. Even if there is temporary stabilization, the underlying dynamic remains structurally competitive.”
The ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and America’s attack on Venezuela in January — which led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and takeover of that country’s oil industry — may have deepened Chinese leaders’ wariness of Mr. Trump, said Daniel R. Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
“Donald Trump may think he is demonstrating military strength that will intimidate Beijing,” said Mr. Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “But his actions in Venezuela and Iran are more likely to drive Beijing’s determination to harden its capacity to resist the U.S. and to tighten its alignment with Russia.”
To fortify China against perceived threats, Mr. Xi is also committed to a continued buildup of the People’s Liberation Army forces, even after eviscerating its high command with purges that have removed his top generals and left key leadership posts vacant.
At the legislative meeting, the government said it would increase its military spending by 7 percent this year relative to last year. That rise would bring China’s annual spending on its armed forces to about $277 billion, which is about one third of the Trump administration’s proposed military spending for the 2026 fiscal year.
But Mr. Xi has indicated that long-term victory depends less on raw spending and more on the country’s ability to dominate industries of the future.
In areas like A.I., robotics, quantum computing and 6G, “I think there’s a strong sense among China’s policymakers that they can take the lead over the U.S.,” said Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution focusing on China’s industrial policies.
Although China’s economy, and especially its tech sector, is now heavily commercial, the goals laid down in the plan are like “huge flashing lights that orient central bureaucrats, local officials, domestic companies, and multinationals on the country’s priorities for the next five years,” said Scott Kennedy, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and the author of a new study of China’s drive for technological breakthroughs.
“Policymakers will need to develop more specific policies to achieve these goals, and businesses will need to align their strategies, at least in name, toward these aims,” Mr. Kennedy wrote in emailed comments.
The plan calls for investment to also flow into enhancing China’s advanced industries, such as industrial robots and pharmaceuticals. And while Mr. Xi sets the national vision, the execution often falls to local officials across the country, creating a surge in production that is likely to spill over China’s borders, further straining relations with trading partners.
“To the extent that industrial policies are implemented with little coordination across local levels, overcapacity will continue to be a feature,” said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies Chinese economic strategy. “This means Chinese producers will continue to find buyers around the world. The tactics are a combination of export and shifting production capacity overseas.”
Li You contributed research from Shanghai.
Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for The Times, reports on China and Taiwan from Taipei, focused on politics, social change and security and military issues.
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