Texas primary voters of both parties voted with cool heads Tuesday, rejecting candidates who appealed to their parties’ bases with more inflammatory styles that could have proved riskier in a general election.
But challenges still remain for Democrat James Talarico — who won the primary outright on a unifying message of reaching out to all Texans — and for Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who nosed ahead of firebrand Attorney General Ken Paxton but now faces a punishing May 26 runoff against him.
Democrats face an uphill battle to flip a Senate seat in the red state no matter what happens in the runoff, as they mount their long-shot bid to retake the Senate in November. The chamber is currently controlled by Republicans, 53 to 47, and Democrats must flip several deep-red states like Texas to regain control.
The next few months will determine how well-positioned Texas Democrats are to regain a Senate seat that’s eluded them for over 30 years, as the party hopes unusually high voter enthusiasm and weariness with President Donald Trump could fuel their comeback. Talarico in the coming months must work to unite the party by attracting Black voters who strongly backed his opponent, all while fending off coming attacks from the right painting him as a radical in the red state.
And Cornyn’s political survival may depend on the actions of someone who is notoriously hard to predict or corral — Trump. Without the president’s endorsement, Cornyn may struggle to clear the runoff, and either way the next few months will be a divisive slugfest between two Republicans with large megaphones.
“We are not going to go quietly, and we are not going to let you buy the seat,” Paxton said at his election-night party in Dallas, referencing the tens of millions of dollars Cornyn and his allies poured into the race.
Cornyn, a fourth-term senator who is widely considered to be a stronger general-election candidate than scandal-plagued Paxton, fell short of the 50 percent mark that would have avoided a runoff. Paxton was impeached by the GOP-controlled Texas House in May 2023 on charges of bribery but was acquitted by the Senate.
Cornyn warned Paxton that “judgment” was coming for him. “I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build,” he told reporters.
The bitter intra-Republican warfare marked a stark contrast to the Democratic side of the ledger, where Rep. Jasmine Crockett set aside her earlier attacks on Talarico — and a legal challenge she filed Tuesday after voters were turned away from polling places in her Dallas district — and urged Democrats to come together Wednesday.
“Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person,” Crockett wrote in a social media post.
Talarico also urged unity, telling his supporters Tuesday, “The stakes in Texas are too high for division.”
Mudslinging in the final weeks of the race may have caused some damage that Talarico will need to repair ahead of November, however. Crockett called the argument that Talarico was more electable than her a “dog whistle” and slammed him for not condemning ads run by a super PAC that supported him as “straight-up racist.” (Talarico does not control the super PAC, and the group denied darkening Crockett’s skin in an ad.)
Crockett ran strong with the state’s Black voters, while Talarico appeared to run away with the Latino vote in the state. He beat Crockett by 30 points or more in 21 counties that are more than 75 percent Latino. In counties that were 20 percent or more Black, Crockett edged him out by 25 percentage points.
Nancy Zdunkewicz, a Texas Democratic pollster, said she believed that much of the Crockett-Talarico tensions played out online rather than on the campaign trail and that the primary electorate was not divided.
“She has conceded graciously, and I don’t want to overstate any damage done simply because of the social media dialogue, which was unnoticed by voters,” she said.
Kamala Harris, the former vice president who backed Crockett in the final days of the race, urged voters to unify, as well. “I congratulate James Talarico for his win, and the inspiring campaign he continues to build,” she said in a statement. “I offer him my full support in the months ahead.”
Republicans have a while to go before they can start their postprimary healing process, which could dampen enthusiasm in November. It’s also unclear whether Republicans will continue to vote with their heads instead of their hearts in May by backing Cornyn. Runoffs tend to feature a smaller, more intense group of voters compared with regular primaries, which could benefit Paxton. And it remains an open question whether Trump will get off the sidelines and support Cornyn, a nod that could put him over the top in the state.
Political analysts also don’t know if the roughly 13 percent of Republicans who voted for Rep. Wesley Hunt (R), who failed to make the runoff, will show up again in May and, if so, which candidate they would favor.
Cornyn’s allies have warned the president that should Paxton be their nominee, the party would have to spend $200 million to get him over the finish line — a haul that would take away from other competitive Senate races Republicans are defending in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. Paxton historically has not been a strong fundraiser, and Democrats have nominated Talarico, whom they see as a stronger candidate than Crockett in the general election and may take more resources to beat.
Cornyn has Trump-connected allies on his side as they make this pitch, including Trump’s former campaign manager Chris LaCivita, who is running his super PAC, and Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio.
LaCivita tweeted Tuesday night, referring to Paxton consultant Jeff Roe, who is reviled by many in Trumpworld: “Hey @KenPaxtonTX and @jeffroe the second wave is going to be a bitch….”
Republicans in the state are sounding the alarm about record-breaking primary turnout for Democrats, which they see as a signifier of high enthusiasm going into November. Ross Hunt, a Republican pollster, called the turnout “a code red alert for Texas Republicans” in an analysis he published earlier this week. He predicted Democrats have added more than 480,000 voters to their turnout in the fall.
“Republicans will need to do everything right this fall: we will need to select the best nominees for the General Election, maximize GOP turnout, practice intense message discipline, and have a clear-eyed and dispassionate understanding of where the new front line of defense stands after March 3rd,” he wrote.
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