Ukraine has enough interceptor drone manufacturers, and now needs to prepare for the next phase of defending against Russia’s Shaheds, a prominent drone analyst said on Tuesday.
The new tech battle is going to be all about speed, said Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, an influential Ukrainian drone expert, in a Telegram post.
“There is no need to become the ‘one hundred and first’ manufacturer of drones against the current Shaheds,” he wrote. “We need to work for the future.”
Beskrestnov, who was recently appointed an advisor to Ukraine’s defense ministry, said the race would emerge as Ukraine gradually improves the effectiveness of its interceptor drones.
Interceptor drones are small uncrewed aerial systems primarily designed by Ukrainians to fly into the Kremlin’s Gerans, Russia’s mass-produced versions of the Iranian Shahed drone.
The interceptors have become a core pillar of Ukraine’s air defense network, offering a more cost-effective way to counter hundreds-strong waves of Gerans. Popular types of interceptor drones can cost around $2,500 to $6,000 each.
Beskrestnov predicted that Russia would soon adapt in three ways: installing evasion systems on its Gerans, building reliable flight corridors for the loitering munitions, and manually piloting them at extremely low altitudes to evade air defenses.
“We will cope with this and all the enemy’s bets will be on speed,” Beskrestnov wrote.
Russia’s most commonly used Geran is the Geran-2, based on the Shahed-136 and capable of about 115 mph. However, Moscow is. increasingly deploying jet-powered versions of the drone, dubbed Geran-3s, that can fly at speeds of up to 200 mph.
Now, Beskrestnov says it’s likely Russia will try to push those Geran-3s to 250 mph. The newer Geran-5, which is similar to Iran’s Karrar drone, is also feared to be capable of reaching 370 mph.
“At one point, all our interceptor drones may turn out to be useless,” the analyst warned.
Ukraine’s interceptor drones are typically first-person-view propeller-driven systems. Local engineers incrementally improved their designs to fly reliably at around 220 mph, but will likely be limited in how far they can push these aircraft, which are often built with inexpensive off-the-shelf parts.
“If you are a manufacturer, I ask you to begin developing interception systems for strike UAVs at such speeds right now, while we still have time,” Beskrestnov wrote.
His call echoes Ukraine’s initial research into interceptor drones in early 2024, when the tech was primarily used to destroy Russian reconnaissance drones.
As drone engineers realized at the time that Ukraine needed an answer to Russia ramping up Geran production, they spent months preparing their designs in anticipation of the growing threat.
By 2025, their present form began to emerge on Ukrainian drone markets, until Kyiv eventually set a production goal of at least 1,000 a day. As 2026 rolls on, it remains to be seen whether that could drastically change.
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