Texas primary voters of both parties voted with cool heads Tuesday, rejecting candidates who appealed to their parties’ bases with more inflammatory styles that could have proved riskier in a general election.
But challenges still remain for Democrat James Talarico — who won the primary outright on a unifying message of reaching out to all Texans — and for Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who nosed ahead of firebrand Attorney General Ken Paxton but now faces a punishing May 26 runoff against him. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced on social media that he soon would pick a candidate in that runoff and expects the other person to drop out immediately.
Democrats face an uphill battle to flip a Senate seat in the red state no matter what happens in the runoff, as they mount their long-shot bid to retake the Senate in November. The chamber is currently controlled by Republicans, 53 to 47, and Democrats must flip several deep-red states like Texas to regain control.
“Talarico’s victory is a big step forward in our quest to win back the Senate,” Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York) told reporters Wednesday.
The next few months will determine how well-positioned Texas Democrats are to regain a Senate seat that’s eluded them for over 30 years, as the party hopes unusually high voter enthusiasm and weariness with Trump could fuel their comeback. Talarico in the coming months must work to unite the party by attracting Black voters who strongly backed his opponent, all while fending off coming attacks from the right painting him as a radical in the red state.
And Cornyn’s political survival may depend on the actions of someone who is notoriously hard to predict or corral — Trump. Cornyn’s allies in the Senate have made an aggressive case to the president in recent months to back the senator, and are hopeful he will do so now that he’s shown the ability to beat Paxton on his own.
Trump said he wanted his coming endorsement to head off two more months of ugly campaigning among the Republicans. “It is such an honor to realize and say that almost everyone I Endorse WINS, and wins by a lot, especially in Texas!” he wrote in a social media post. “I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!”
Trump said the party must “TOTALLY FOCUS” on beating Talarico.
Cornyn, a fourth-term senator who is widely considered to be a stronger general-election candidate than scandal-plagued Paxton, fell short of the 50 percent mark that would have avoided a runoff. Paxton was impeached by the GOP-controlled Texas House in May 2023 on charges of bribery but was acquitted by the Senate.
Cornyn warned Paxton that “judgment” was coming for him. “I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build,” he told reporters.
At his election-night party in Dallas, Paxton said he would not “go quietly” or let Cornyn “buy the seat,” referencing the tens of millions of dollars Cornyn and his allies poured into the race. A spokesman for Paxton did not immediately return a request for comment on Trump’s announcement.
The bitter intra-Republican warfare marked a stark contrast to the Democratic side of the ledger, where Rep. Jasmine Crockett set aside her earlier attacks on Talarico and urged Democrats to come together Wednesday.
“Whether it’s Ken Paxton or John Cornyn, anyone would be better,” Crockett said in a video she posted Wednesday. She added she was “heartbroken” by the people who had been turned away from vote.
Talarico also urged unity, telling his supporters Tuesday, “The stakes in Texas are too high for division.”
Mudslinging in the final weeks of the race may have caused some damage that Talarico will need to repair ahead of November, however. Crockett called the argument that Talarico was more electable than her a “dog whistle” and slammed him for not condemning ads run by a super PAC that supported him as “straight-up racist.” (Talarico does not control the super PAC, and the group denied darkening Crockett’s skin in an ad.)
Crockett ran strong with the state’s Black voters, while Talarico appeared to run away with the Latino vote in the state. He beat Crockett by about 30 points in the 21 counties that are at least 75 percent Latino. In counties that were 20 percent or more Black, Crockett edged him out by 25 percentage points.
Nancy Zdunkewicz, a Texas Democratic pollster, said she believed that much of the Crockett-Talarico tensions played out online rather than on the campaign trail and that the primary electorate was not divided.
“She has conceded graciously, and I don’t want to overstate any damage done simply because of the social media dialogue, which was unnoticed by voters,” she said.
Kamala Harris, the former vice president who backed Crockett in the final days of the race, urged voters to unify, as well. “I congratulate James Talarico for his win, and the inspiring campaign he continues to build,” she said in a statement. “I offer him my full support in the months ahead.”
Trump appears eager to avoid a scenario in which both Republicans stay in the race and attack each other, potentially hurting GOP enthusiasm ahead of November. If Trump backs Cornyn, that would likely give the senator, who’s struggled to energize MAGA voters, the edge against Paxton. Runoffs tend to feature a smaller, more intense group of voters compared with regular primaries, which makes the Trump endorsement all the more critical for Cornyn.
Cornyn’s allies have warned the president that should Paxton be their nominee, the party would have to spend $200 million to get him over the finish line — a haul that would take away from other competitive Senate races Republicans are defending in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. Paxton historically has not been a strong fundraiser, and Democrats have nominated Talarico, whom they see as a stronger candidate than Crockett in the general election and may take more resources to beat.
“The matchup that’s good for us is John Cornyn as the top of the ticket,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) told reporters Wednesday. “He’s positioned to win the runoff, and if the president endorses early, it saves everybody a lot of money.”
Cornyn has Trump-connected allies on his side as they make this pitch, including Trump’s former campaign manager Chris LaCivita, who is running his super PAC, and Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio. Cornyn outperformed the pre-election public polling that showed him trailing Paxton. Internal GOP numbers showed him closing the gap in the final days of the primary race as Rep. Wesley Hunt’s prospects faded.
LaCivita tweeted Tuesday night, referring to Paxton consultant Jeff Roe, who is reviled by many in Trumpworld: “Hey @KenPaxtonTX and @jeffroe the second wave is going to be a bitch….”
Republicans in the state are sounding the alarm about record-breaking primary turnout for Democrats, which they see as a signifier of high enthusiasm going into November. Ross Hunt, a Republican pollster, called the turnout “a code red alert for Texas Republicans” in an analysis he published earlier this week. He predicted Democrats have added more than 480,000 voters to their turnout in the fall.
“Republicans will need to do everything right this fall: we will need to select the best nominees for the General Election, maximize GOP turnout, practice intense message discipline, and have a clear-eyed and dispassionate understanding of where the new front line of defense stands after March 3rd,” he wrote.
Theodoric Meyer and Ence Morse contributed to this report.
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