Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
Tuesday’s primaries went about as well as mainstream Democrats could hope for. Not only did they get the Texas Senate nominee they wanted in state Rep. James Talarico, but incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee of North Dakota was also narrowly ahead of her progressive challenger, Nida Allam. Faced with two chances to swing left, Democratic primary voters — barely — stuck with their establishment’s preferred choices.
That will give mainstream Democratic strategists some relief as they look ahead to many more contentious intraparty battles that will shape the midterm fight, as well as the contours of the 2028 presidential nomination.
Progressive energy is certainly rising, but so far the tide has not turned into a wave that would complicate the party’s hoped-for path back to power.
Democrats can also rejoice in the overall turnout data. Democratic turnout in North Carolina easily bested the numbers for Republicans, while in redder Texas the parties are neck and neck as the final votes are counted. Both showings represent significant improvements for the Democratic Party over recent primaries. That’s a bullish indicator for its ability to attract independents in the fall.
A caveat: One should be careful not to overread that outcome. Texas does not have partisan registration, so voters tend to swarm toward the party that has the more interesting top-of-the-ticket race.
In 2020, for example, Democrats had an important presidential contest while President Donald Trump was cruising to renomination. Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in the March primaries in Texas, as voters clearly decided that choosing between then-former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I -Vermont) was more consequential than casting another vote for Trump. That certainly didn’t mean Trump was in trouble in the state.
On Tuesday night, the fact that the Republican Senate contest was sure to go to a runoff while the Democratic one featured two strong but stylistically opposite candidates probably had a similar effect on voter choice.
Democrats will also be pleased with the outcome of the Texas GOP Senate primary. Controversial, ultraconservative Attorney General Ken Paxton will enter the May runoff essentially tied with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. The smart money will be on Paxton in that race, since runoff electorates tend to be smaller and more ideological than those on primary day.
That would set up a Democratic dream scenario of Talarico — who offers greater appeal to moderates than his primary opponent Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a liberal firebrand, did — facing the scandal-tarred Paxton. To be sure, Talarico is more liberal than the median Texas voter, and in a state so Republican, Paxton will remain the favorite. But polls so far rate that matchup as a toss-up. Even plausibly putting Texas in play would be a fantastic development for Democrats’ very outside chance to retake Senate control.
Of course, Republicans know this, too. In the coming weeks, expect immense pressure on Trump to endorse Cornyn. To put his power and prestige behind the incumbent, Trump could truthfully say that Cornyn has worked with him, while arguing that Republicans cannot risk losing Texas. A Trump endorsement could help Cornyn beat the odds.
In case anyone doubts it, Trump’s power with Texas Republicans was on full display Tuesday night. Every one of his nonincumbent endorsees either won their race outright or made it to a runoff. His charisma is strongest with exactly the sort of conservative who tends to vote in runoff elections. With one of his 2024 campaign managers and his top pollster already lined up behind Cornyn, don’t be surprised if the president tries to tip the scales in Cornyn’s favor.
The 2026 primary season is just getting going, and it’s entirely possible that progressive challengers will do better elsewhere. Few potential Republican nominees have as much baggage as Paxton, and Trump’s job approval ratings seem to have stabilized, though they remain lower than Republicans would like. Lots of things can change, in either party’s direction.
Tuesday night should thus be thought of as the first half-inning of a baseball game. Democrats put the side down in order and will come up to bat in Illinois’ crucial House primaries in two weeks. As any baseball fan knows, however, a good first inning is no guarantee the game is won.
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