If you were looking to make money on nuclear detonations, you now have one less avenue to pursue.
Overnight, Polymarket took down a market that allowed users to trade on where a nuclear weapon would detonate by March 31, June 30, or simply before 2027.
Traders who bet yes on any of those timelines would be paid out if there were a nuclear detonation anywhere on Earth, including in an offensive use, a test, or even an accidental detonation.
The market had over $650,000 in total trading volume as of Tuesday, according to an archived snapshot of the site. A message on the webpage now reads: “This event has been archived.”
It’s not yet clear why Polymarket took down the site, or whether users who put money into the market will get refunds. An earlier version of the market, which covered 2025, resolved without incident last year.
A spokesperson for Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
The suspension came after several users on X expressed outrage about the existence of the market, particularly amid a raft of suspicious trades on the platform in the wake of the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
this is worse than any dystopia we couldve imagined https://t.co/9chaYHhOGc
— hasanabi (@hasanthehun) March 4, 2026
This isn’t the first time Polymarket has come under public scrutiny for hosting markets related to armed conflict.
After an anonymous Polymarket trader made over $400,000 on a suspiciously well-timed bet on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s political future, a lawmaker introduced a bill to ban prediction market insider trading by government officials.
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