Texas Democrats turned out in unusually high numbers during early voting, including 400,000 people who had never before voted in a Democratic primary.
More than one in four voters who cast an early ballot in the Democratic primary had only voted in a general election before, according to early voting data analyzed by Derek Ryan, a Republican political consultant.
Since polls and campaigns typically focus on likely voters based on a history of casting a ballot in a primary, the number of first-time Democratic primary voters may raise questions regarding the results of recent polls in the Democratic race for U.S. Senate between U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico.
In short, the polls may be less reliable than usual.
Over the two weeks of early voting, nearly 1.5 million people cast a primary election ballot for Democrats — a surge in turnout.
Sawyer Hackett, a Democratic strategist based in Texas, said the surprisingly high turnout was good for the party. But, given the makeup of the voters, all it showed, he warned, was that Democratic voters were engaged. It gave no indication of who they had cast their ballot for. While the Senate race has driven Democrats to the polls, Mr. Hackett attributed the uptick in voting to a desire to show opposition to the Trump administration.
“They’re showing up because they’re having the same visceral reaction to the first year of the Trump presidency that all of us are having,” he said. In terms of who will win, he said, “I don’t know what to make of it.”
Candidates were also dealing with the stress of what may be unpredictable results driven by the high volume of new primary voters, especially in races with less attention. Annise Parker, the former mayor of Houston who is running for Harris County judge, said her campaign had targeted primary voters through internal polls and messaging, as is typical. The large number of general election voters who showed up at the primary polls were not on the campaign’s radar.
“They’re clearly engaged, but nobody knows what they’re going to do,” Ms. Parker said. It’s exciting, she agreed, “unless you’re a candidate!”
J. David Goodman contributed reporting from Houston.
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