President Trump’s new 10 percent tariff on global imports has created a new slate of winners and losers, suddenly reshuffling the prospects for countries that have spent many months angling for lower tariff rates than their neighbors and competitors.
The 10 percent tariff, which was issued under a legal provision known as Section 122, replaces the previous system of levies that the Supreme Court struck down last month. The change is particularly beneficial to major exporters that had faced the highest tariffs rates under that old regime, including Asian nations like China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as Brazil.
Canada and Mexico also face much lower nominal rates, though in practice many of their exports have been excluded under the terms of a North American trade pact. The losers are countries that previously had the lowest rates — including close allies like Britain and Australia — who have seen their advantage over other exporting nations erased.
“If you’re in Southeast Asia, a 10 percent tariff under Section 122 is actually a relatively good deal,” Mira Rapp-Hooper, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, said at a panel discussion held by the Washington think tank last week. “It’s relatively better off than you thought you were going to do under your negotiated agreement with the Trump administration.”
Ryan Petersen, the chief executive of Flexport, a freight forwarder and logistics provider, said in an interview that Bangladesh and Vietnam stood out as relative winners given that their previous rates of around 20 percent had now dropped to 10 percent.
Yet some products like luxury clothing from Japan and the European Union, which had previously been tariff-free, were now subject to a 10 percent rate, he said.
One year ago, a 10 percent global tariff would probably have outraged many countries and companies. But after Mr. Trump raised tariffs over the past year to extremely high levels — including 145 percent on exports from China and 50 percent on exports from India and Brazil — 10 percent has felt like something of a relief.
The Trump administration has pledged to use other tariff laws to eventually recreate its prior system of levies, which varied by country and were typically higher for Asia than other regions. But that process could take months, delaying the imposition of a more varied system of tariffs that Mr. Trump has claimed — though many economists disagree — will help balance out trade deficits and other countries’ unfair trade practices.
Mr. Trump also threatened on Feb. 21 to raise the new 10 percent tariff to 15 percent, which would narrow some of those advantages. But that higher rate has not gone into effect, and it’s unclear when or if it will.
A White House spokesman said last week that the president still wanted the increase but that he did not have a timeline for it. Subsequently, the White House did not respond to a request for comment.
The prospect of raising the new global tariff rate from 10 to 15 percent has already caused tensions with several of America’s closest allies, including the European Union.
European leaders have paused their efforts to finalize a trade deal with the United States, as they wait to see if the tariffs the president imposes on them end up higher than what they negotiated in the trade deal. The E.U. agreed in its deal to a maximum tariff of 15 percent on its exports. But if Mr. Trump puts in place a new 15 percent global tariffs, that would add to some preexisting tariffs on European exports and push the total tariff rate above 15 percent for some goods.
Economists at Oxford Economics, an advisory firm, said that under the 15 percent tariff rate that Mr. Trump had promised, the biggest losers would be Britain and Australia, which previously had lower rates.
Many Asian countries would still fare somewhat better, with Brazil and China ending up as the biggest winners, as well as several other Asian economies, they said.
It remains to be seen whether the lower tariff rate for Asian nations and others will prompt another surge in imports in the near-term, as companies once again try to bring in products ahead of more tariffs.
Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence on Friday forecast a return to front-loading, saying that businesses were particularly likely to stock up on products in the apparel sector. There, the 150-day period for the new 10 percent tariff would overlap with the start of peak winter shipping.
But Mr. Peterson of Flexport said the changes had not been big enough for shippers to accelerate orders yet, especially given that the tariff rates could change again while the goods were on the water.
“The new 10 percent flat tariff under Section 122 reshuffles the playing field, but so far it’s not triggering a major sourcing surge,” he said.
Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, also said in a briefing for the Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners last week that he did not expect a huge increase in cargo in the near term. Ports and factories in Asia were just opening up following the Lunar New Year holiday, and March imports were projected to be slower than anticipated, he said.
He also said that uncertainty was continuing to make long-term planning difficult for businesses.
“It’s impossible to plan for more than a few months down the road when no one knows what the next rules are going to be,” he said.
Despite the higher tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on Asian exports last year, many U.S. businesses have continued buying parts and products from abroad because they have been unable to find alternatives.
Rebecca Melsky, the co-founder of Princess Awesome, a children’s clothing company based in Washington that sued over Mr. Trump’s tariffs, said she had been searching for suppliers outside of Asia with little success.
Ms. Melsky and her business partner had attended a sourcing convention in Las Vegas shortly before the Supreme Court ruling to try to find other suppliers. They saw no vendors from the United States and weren’t able to find any from South America, either, she said. Instead, they found more factories in Asia they would be interested in working with.
After tariffs made producing in China too expensive, the company had moved most of its production to Bangladesh. But Mr. Trump set the tariff on Bangladesh at 19 percent last year, and Princess Awesome was facing an additional $120,000 tariff bill this year.
“I was starting to think we might close,” Ms. Melsky said. Now, she said, “This feels like at least we have a shot.”
Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics for The Times and is based in Washington. She has been a journalist for more than a decade.
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