The Battle for Congress Is Kicking Off. Here’s What to Know.

Welcome to the biggest week yet of the 2026 midterm elections.

Primary season is kicking off on Tuesday, with elections in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas.

Some of these races could ultimately help decide control of Congress this November, and many offer fascinating windows into the directions of both the Republican and Democratic Parties. The war with Iran has added an unpredictable new element to the elections.

Here’s what to know about the biggest races on the map tomorrow:

The Republican primary contest for Senate in Texas: If you watch just one state tomorrow, make it Texas, where Senator John Cornyn — who embodies the nearly extinct breed of old-guard, establishment Republican — is embroiled in a bitter, expensive and difficult race for his political survival.

He faces a serious challenge from the hard-right, scandal–scarred state attorney general, Ken Paxton, who is a favorite of the MAGA faithful. Representative Wesley Hunt, one of the first Black Republicans to represent Texas in the House, is also running for the party’s nomination.

If no one wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two candidates will head to a runoff on May 26.
The Democratic primary race for Senate in Texas: Democrats in Texas have spent the last three decades losing at the statewide level, and the Senate race this fall is a long shot. But some Democrats hope that if Mr. Paxton is the Republican nominee, he would be seen as so extreme by so many voters that — maybe — they could put the seat in play. (Mr. Cornyn, for his part, has warned that Mr. Paxton would endanger down-ballot Republicans.)

Texas Democrats, however, are battling over what kind of candidate would be strongest in a general election. In some ways, it’s a Democratic proxy fight over perceptions of electability in the Trump era.

Is the party’s best bet Representative Jasmine Crockett, a firebrand Democrat from Dallas who argues that she could energize infrequent liberal voters? Or would State Representative James Talarico, who preaches a politics of unity and makes overtures across the aisle, stand a better chance?

The polls have been all over the place. Tuesday night should be quite suspenseful!
Texas House primaries: Other races on Tuesday will measure the mood of base voters. For example, Representative Dan Crenshaw faces a right-wing challenger in a race that will test whether any dissent against President Trump is allowed in today’s Republican Party. Representative Tony Gonzales, mired in scandal, faces a tough re-election fight. And at a moment when Democrats are tired of the gerontocracy, Representative Al Green, 78, is facing a difficult primary contest against a younger Democrat.
North Carolina’s Senate race: Democrats are hoping former Gov. Roy Cooper, who won challenging races in this right-leaning state, can help them pick up a seat in a place that has broken Democratic hearts repeatedly in recent years. The seat is open because Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican who has crossed Mr. Trump, is not running again.

On the Republican side, Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, has Mr. Trump’s backing and is the dominant front-runner in available primary polling, though other Republicans are running, too.
North Carolina House and state legislative primaries: Representative Valerie Foushee, a Democrat, faces a left-wing challenge. In other races, there are signs of anti-establishment sentiment at play.
Barring something extraordinary in deep-red Arkansas, there aren’t many spicy races to watch there on Tuesday. Still, you can learn more about what’s on the ballot here.

Tuesday is just the start of what is likely to be a raucous and unpredictable primary season. Get up to speed on what’s coming next with our midterm primary election calendar: