Latino voters in Texas have moved toward Republicans in the last several years, helping to elect President Trump and cementing the party’s firm hold on the state. While Tuesday’s primary elections in Texas will not make clear whether those voters intend to stick with Republicans this year, they will provide an important snapshot of the 6.5 million Hispanic voters in the state.
For decades, Democrats believed the state’s shifting demographics would only help them expand their power. But as Republicans have made significant gains with Hispanic voters, leaders in both parties have debated how to attract more of those voters — and whether the key is moderation or a fiery message. Tuesday’s results will provide new clues about just how enthusiastic voters are for both parties.
Latino voters are likely to play a pivotal role in several Texas primary races. Here are some of the races where they are poised to have the biggest effect on the outcome.
Democratic Senate race: Representative Jasmine Crockett came under intense criticism shortly after the 2024 election when she said that Latinos who supported Mr. Trump had “almost like a slave mentality,” suggesting that they harbored deeply anti-immigrant attitudes. Ms. Crockett later said she never intended to “actually offend somebody,” and she has spent significant time and resources reaching out to Latino voters in the last several months. But many Democrats believe that State Representative James Talarico will attract more Hispanic voters with his frequent references to his religious faith and Scripture. Both candidates have advertised in Spanish, and Mr. Talarico has also relied on several Spanish-speaking influencers on social media to reach younger voters, who are less likely to cast a ballot in the primary.
Republican Senate race: Hispanic voters are likely to make up roughly 25 percent of voters in the state’s Republican primary, according to data from the University of Houston, just slightly less than in the Democratic primary. There is little to indicate that any one of the three candidates — Senator John Cornyn, Representative Wesley Hunt and Ken Paxton, the state attorney general — is particularly popular among Hispanic voters in the primary.
Congressional District 15: Few districts have seen as much political shift as the 15th, where Representative Monica De La Cruz first won in 2022, marking the first time a Republican has represented the district in decades. Democrats have been fighting to win back the seat ever since. Party leaders have been particularly excited about Bobby Pulido, a cowboy-hat-and-boots-wearing Tejano musician who has portrayed himself as a political moderate. But Mr. Pulido must first defeat Ada Cuellar, an emergency room physician who is decidedly to the left. Hispanics make up more than 80 percent of the district, which stretches narrowly from McAllen to the north of San Antonio.
Congressional District 34: This district, which now includes parts of the Rio Grande Valley and the Corpus Christi area, has also seen a dramatic increase in the popularity of President Trump. In a 2022 special election, voters electedMayra Flores, a Republican who campaigned on “God, family, country” and became the first woman born in Mexico to serve in the House. Ms. Flores lost several months later to Vicente Gonzalez Jr., a Democrat who represented part of the region for more than a decade, and again in a 2024 rematch. Now, she is battling in a Republican primary against Eric Flores, an Army veteran and former municipal judge and federal prosecutor. Ms. Flores and Mr. Flores grew up in the area and speak Spanish fluently — both of which seem to be essential credentials in the border district, which is nearly 80 percent Hispanic. While Ms. Flores won largely by relying on voters who strongly supported Mr. Trump, Mr. Flores received the president’s endorsement this time.
Congressional District 35: This district shifted dramatically when the state Legislature redrew districts to make them more favorable to Republicans. Representative Greg Casar, a Democrat who was first elected in 2022, was drawn out of the district and is running in the solidly Democratic 37th district. Now, there are four Democrats and 11 Republicans running for the 35th district, which encompasses parts of San Antonio and several outlying areas to the east. The crowded primary makes it likely that both parties will move to a runoff election. And although Mr. Trump would have won by 10 points in the newly redrawn districts, many Democrats believe they can win the seat by winning back Hispanic voters, who make up more than half of eligible voters in the district.
Congressional District 23: Representative Tony Gonzales, a Republican who has represented this border district since 2021, has faced considerable pressure to resign in recent days, amid allegations that he had coerced a staff member into a sexual relationship; the staff member later killed herself. Mr. Gonzales is facing a primary rematch with Brandon Herrera, a boisterous conservative and gun rights activist who has built a large audience on YouTube, where he is known as the AK Guy. Mr. Gonzales defeated Mr. Herrera in 2024 by just several hundred votes.
Congressional District 29: Representative Sylvia Garcia, a Democrat, has represented a large eastern swath of Houston since 2019, when she became the first Hispanic woman to represent the area in Congress. But when Texas Republicans redrew the congressional map last year, her district suddenly lost heavily Hispanic neighborhoods and replaced them with a large concentration of Black voters. Now, Hispanic voters most likely make up less than half of the district, compared with more than 60 percent before the redistricting. Ms. Garcia faces a primary challenge from Jarvis Johnson, who represented several majority-Black areas in the district when he served in the State House and on the Houston City Council.
Jennifer Medina is a Los Angeles-based political reporter for The Times, focused on political attitudes and demographic change.
The post Here Are the Texas Races Where Latino Voters May Play a Critical Role appeared first on New York Times.
