Washingtonians can finally begin to thaw out — at least somewhat.
After three straight colder-than-normal months, March is likely to tilt milder overall. The month will start on the chilly side, but temperatures are poised to surge by the middle of next week, with highs reaching at least the 70s on several days.
Still, it may prove to be a classic case of “fake spring.” A return to cooler weather is possible by midmonth.
Taken together, we project March will finish 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal. Precipitation is expected to run near average, offering little relief from the severe drought affecting the region.
While March can occasionally deliver a major snowstorm, we see little potential this year. We forecast no more than a trace to an inch of snowfall.
What models forecast for the month
After a cold first three days, models project a prolonged stretch of much-above-normal temperatures from March 4 through about March 11, with highs mostly in the 70s. A day or two near 80 degrees can’t be ruled out.
But the pattern will probably flip to a chillier one by mid-March, with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s. Some models hint at a disruption of the polar vortex that could send another surge of cold air southward. How intense or long-lasting that cold might be remains uncertain, and confidence in forecasts more than two weeks out is limited.
There’s no strong signal favoring either wetter- or drier-than-normal conditions. While models show ample precipitation across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, it’s unclear how much of that activity will push east.
Not much snow is likely this month. The early chill appears too brief to produce meaningful accumulation. After that, temperatures trend too warm for snow until at least midmonth. And by mid- to late March — when average highs climb into the mid- to upper 50s — opportunities for snow grow increasingly scarce. That said, late-season surprises are never impossible.
What’s typical in March and what’s more unusual
March, straddling winter and spring, is notoriously volatile as cold and warm air masses spar for control. The old saying that the month “comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb” isn’t perfect, but it contains some truth: snow and biting cold are more common early on and become less frequent — and generally less intense — as the month progresses.
Average highs begin March in the low 50s and climb into the low 60s by month’s end. Overnight lows rise from the low to mid-30s into the low 40s. With that warming comes budding trees, blooming flowers — and, often, an unwelcome surge of pollen.
Because of frequent clashes between cold and warm air masses, March is typically the windiest month of the year. One of the area’s most intense windstorms on record struck March 2, 2018, when many locations endured 12 or more consecutive hours of wind gusts topping 50 mph.
Those same atmospheric battles have also fueled major storms — and, when enough cold air has been in place, significant snowfalls. March averages about 2 inches of snow, but totals have occasionally far exceeded that.
Here are the five biggest March snowstorms on record:
- 12 inches, March 27-28, 1891
- 11.5 inches, March 29-30, 1942
- 10.7 inches, March 7-8, 1941
- 10 inches, March 15-16, 1900
- 9.8 inches, March 4, 1909
The largest March snowstorms occurred before 1950 but a few notable ones have happened more recently — including 8.4 on inches on March 3, 1999, and 7.2 inches on March 16-17, 2014. Many will also recall the March 1993 “Storm of the Century,” which delivered 6 to 14 inches across the region.
Other memorable March storms include the March 18-21, 1958, event which produced about 5 inches in D.C. but 1 to 3 feet north and west of the city. And the infamous 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, best known for its coastal damage, dropped about 4 inches in D.C. and substantially more in the mountains.
Recapping February
February finished 3.7 degrees colder than normal. With an average temperature of 36.3 degrees, it was the coldest February since 2015. Twelve of the first 13 days ran below normal before temperatures moderated to near average in the second half of the month.
The coldest day was Feb. 8, when temperatures ranged from a high of 25 to a low of 14. The warmest came on Feb. 28, with a high of 64 and low of 36.
For the first time since the winter of 2009-2010, December, January and February all averaged below normal.
Meteorological winter, spanning December to February, was the coldest since 2002-2003; it was the coldest December since 2010 and the coldest January since 2014.
Total February precipitation — including rain and melted snow — reached 2.57 inches, very close to the 2.62-inch average.
Despite the persistent chill, snowfall was limited. Just 1.1 inches was recorded in D.C., well below the seasonal norm of 5 inches.
Our prediction that February would be 4 to 6 degrees colder than normal was nearly spot-on as was our forecast for near normal precipitation. But our call for 3 to 7 inches of snow was too high.
Matt Rogers and Ian Livingston contributed to this report.
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