The United States and Israel began a broad and sustained bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran on Saturday morning. No one knows how this will end, which means the onus is on President Donald Trump to better convey his plans to the nation.
On Jan. 2, Trump said the United States was “locked and loaded” to come to the “rescue” if the Iranian regime responded to widespread protests lethally. The security services responded by slaughtering perhaps tens of thousands of their own citizens. American and Iranian representatives negotiated for weeks while the U.S. amassed firepower in the Middle East.
On Saturday, Trump called Operation Epic Fury a “war” and said the goal was toppling the regime that has controlled Iran since 1979 to usher in “freedom for the people.” The “massive and ongoing” operation is targeting Iran’s nuclear program, missile infrastructure and command-and-control functions.
It’s jarring to hear a clear call for democracy in Iran from a president who campaigned on preventing open-ended conflicts in the Middle East. Success will likely require more than a bombing campaign.
For a generation, Iran has been the world’s biggest state sponsor of terrorism, backing Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other proxies as they wreaked havoc and killed Americans. The Islamic Republic looks more vulnerable than ever to toppling.
And the U.S. is not going it alone: In addition to Israel’s backing, Saudi Arabia condemned Iranian retaliation. Even Canada expressed support, despite Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent feud with Trump. Calls for more negotiations from European countries only underscored their irrelevance.
Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. Trump insisted that last summer’s bunker-buster bombs totally “obliterated” Iran’s enrichment program, but now he says it needs to be “totally, again, obliterated.” It’s always been clear he was exaggerating the success of Operation Midnight Hammer, and Iran has remained unwilling to give up its goal of proliferation. The danger of lobbing some bombs without seeing this through is that Iran’s leaders could become more determined than ever to get a bomb to deter future strikes.
The more immediate fear should be what happens to U.S. troops throughout the region. Iran promises “crushing” retaliation and struck a U.S. Navy headquarters in Bahrain. Trump acknowledged in announcing the commencement of operations that American forces “may have casualties.” Despite the biggest buildup of forces in the Middle East since the Iraq War, it’s not clear the U.S. has sufficient stocks of missiles and defensive interceptors to sustain a prolonged air campaign.
Decapitating Iranian leadership appears to be a priority. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, was among the senior officials targeted. Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was hit.
It’s essential to think through the endgame when deciding to kill the leaders of another country. Trump urged civilians to “take over” the government after the airstrikes finish. “It will be yours to take,” he said. “This will be probably your only chance for generations.” If only it was that easy.
It’s possible a military junta gains control and intensifies repression. It’s also possible that a country of 93 million, more than twice the geographic size of Texas, splinters along ethnic lines. That could mean civil war and instability that leads to the intervention of neighboring armies.
It’s hard to see how “freedom for the people” can be accomplished in any meaningful sense without some U.S. boots on the ground, at least for a time. Yet Trump appears to lack any appetite for doing so. That might give pause to civilians trying to decide whether to risk their lives by rising up.
Whether Trump has made the right call will hinge on factors now beyond his control. No president has ever intended to get drawn into a quagmire.
The Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war. Short of that, the War Powers Act ensures the legislative branch will get a say on this war of choice. It’s essential that the people’s elected representatives get to vote on whether these strikes are justified. A comprehensive case has yet to be made, and better late than never.
The post Trump’s Iran gamble appeared first on Washington Post.
