Voters are closely split over which party they prefer in the November midterm elections, but Democrats hold a wide advantage in voter enthusiasm over Republicans that could help them reclaim at least some power, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
The poll reflects Republicans’ slippery grasp on power in Washington as they struggle to motivate their core supporters to show up for them in a year when President Donald Trump will not be on the ballot and when many voters are reporting dissatisfaction with the economy.
More Democrats than Republicans said they are certain to vote this fall — 79 percent to 65 percent among registered voters. That 14-point advantage is the largest Democrats have reported on this question ahead of a midterm election since at least 2006. In 2018, when Democrats won back the House in a wave election during Trump’s first term, Post-ABC polls showed that they held a five-point edge in January on certainty to vote, while Republicans pulled close to even by Election Day.
That motivated Democratic base has shown up in a raft of special elections since Trump won back the White House in 2024, flipping seats in Georgia, Texas, Louisiana and other states and raising alarms among Republicans. Democrats, in the Trump era, have benefited more from low-turnout elections as their support is more concentrated among highly educated voters, a higher-turnout group.
But Democrats have not managed to improve their image much among voters overall in recent months, raising questions about their ability to capitalize on Republicans’ unpopularity. About half of registered voters who disapprove of Trump say the Democratic Party is “out of touch” with the concerns of most people. Overall, similar shares of voters say both Democrats in Congress (65 percent) and Trump (62 percent) are out of touch.
And even as Trump’s approval stands at 41 percent among registered voters, the electorate is nearly evenly divided on which party they plan to vote for to represent them in Congress. Forty-seven percent of registered voters plan to back Democrats, while 45 percent support Republicans. Democrats lead by 55 percent to 44 percent among those who are certain to vote at this early stage in the campaign. That “generic ballot” number is often predictive of midterm swings, with the party holding the clearest lead tending to pick up seats.
Democrats held a large advantage on this question in 2018, leading by an average of 10 percentage points in Post-ABC polls that year, including a seven-point advantage just before the election. A Post average of other national polls this year finds Democrats holding a five-point advantage.
Republicans control both the House and the Senate, although their majority in the House is incredibly thin. Democrats would need to pick up just three seats to regain control of the chamber and are battling to flip seats in several districts where Democrat Kamala Harris won in 2024. In the Senate, Republicans are defending just one state that Harris won, and Democrats would need to flip at least two states where Trump won by double digits in 2024 to regain control of the chamber.
The close race on the generic ballot — despite Trump’s low approval rating — shows that the Democratic brand is “still in the toilet,” said Christopher Nicholas, a Republican strategist in Pennsylvania.
But the enthusiasm gap should be a wake-up call for the president to focus on the economy and other pressing concerns, Nicholas added.
“Team Trump has to do a better job of meeting voters where they are,” he said. “Complaining about a Super Bowl halftime show is not meeting voters where they are. Getting in a squabble with Greenland about some medical ship is not meeting voters where they are.” (Over the weekend, Trump said he would send a hospital ship to Greenland to care for the Arctic island’s sick.)
The economy appears to be one of Republicans’ biggest political liabilities in the fall. By 48 percent to 29 percent, more Americans say the economy has gotten worse under Trump than better.
Republicans also concede it is a struggle to get some Trump supporters to show up when he is not on the ballot. Eighty-five percent of people who voted for Harris in 2024 say they are certain to vote this year, compared with 70 percent of those who voted for Trump. An additional 19 percent of Trump voters say they will “probably vote” this year, while 10 percent say the chances are 50-50 or less that they will show up. The gap is particularly stark among younger voters: 51 percent of 18-to-39 year-olds who voted for Trump say they’re certain to vote this fall, compared with 77 percent of Harris voters in that age group.
Many voters who are unhappy with Trump still do not trust Democrats to do a better job than him, the poll shows. About 4 in 10 voters who disapprove of Trump say they trust neither Democrats nor the president to handle the nation’s problems. And while Democrats have sought to emphasize affordability issues, about a third of voters (35 percent) trust Trump to handle cost-of -living issues, with another third (33 percent) saying they trust Democrats more to tackle that problem. A crucial 28 percent say they trust neither to handle it.
“Republicans are delivering relief and bringing historic wins for working Americans while Democrats desperately want to get back to their status quo of failures, and voters see that contrast clearly,” Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the House GOP campaign arm, said in a statement. “The momentum is real. That’s why House Republicans are crushing Democrats in the money race, dominating key battleground districts, and in a historically strong position to grow our majority.”
Democrats argue that a spate of special-election victories shows their strength.
“It is clear that people across this country have embraced the Democratic brand,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said. “That is the only way to explain how we consistently are winning elections and defeating Republicans across the country, up and down the ballot and in red state after red state after red state.”
Read detailed results. The Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll was conducted Feb. 12-17 among 2,589 U.S. adults. The sample was drawn through the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, an ongoing panel of U.S. households recruited by mail using random sampling methods. The sample is weighted to match population demographics, 2024 turnout/vote choice and political partisanship. Overall results have a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points; the error margin among 2,087 registered voters is 2.2 points.
Marianna Sotomayor contributed to this report.
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